🇹🇷 Is Turkey's president under threat? | Inside Story



is Turkey's president under threats read chapter Burdwan and his a Kay party suffer unprecedented defeats in local elections after years of consolidating power how big a shock hasn't suffered and how can he recover this is inside story hello and welcome to the program today with me Peter Dhabi Brett Shepherd Awan has dominated politics in Turkey for the past 16 years but after winning every election since then his a.k party suffered a setback in Sunday's and local elections voters apparently particularly fed up with what critics say is increasingly autocratic rule as well as the falling value of the Turkish lira rising inflation and higher unemployment the Justice and Development Party lost control in major cities including Izmir and the capital Ankara mr. Erdogan's challenging the opposition's result there and in Turkey's biggest city Istanbul from there jamal al shell has more after almost two decades of constant losses turkey's opposition finally has reason to celebrate the people's Republican Party or CHP won the mayoral position in the capital Ankara and it would seem is on course to capture Istanbul Turkey's largest and most populous city let Turkey be happy now let Istanbul be happy and get back to normal we had seven elections in five years let's get back to work now and serve the people just as we start today we will run the city in a transparent fashion at every moment I'm doing this happily and I know that every part of this city belongs to 16 million people it was the first major position held by red tape erawan who used it to launch his political career nationally losing it is a personal blow to the president every victory and every loss is the will of our nation and we have to accept this fact as a necessity of democracy we will admit that we want people's hearts in cities we want but we were not successful enough in cities we lost and we will act accordingly despite the losses in some of the big cities like Antalya and Edina Edwyn still managed to win more than half the votes counted across the country and nationally it's retained the largest number of Mayors – but the Turkish people appear to have directed their frustration with the faltering economy at the ruling party which has led the country uninterrupted for 17 years Rhonda what was promised on June 24th was if you don't want the country to have economic problems vote for the presidential coalition led by the president president Irwin said the people have spoken and that he has listened he knows that things need to change and that he and his party must come up with solutions to fix the country's economy and address the concerns of those who didn't vote for the AK Party the opposition will now be tested to see if they can deliver better governance in the positions it won from the AKP at a time when other ones been accused of being autocratic Sunday's elections are demonstration that democracy is still very much alive in Turkey jamal al al al jazeera Istanbul okay let's get going let's bring in our guests joining us on skype from Istanbul is Mack net chalak managing editor for the daily Sabo newspaper egg a setch King is a turkey specialist for IHS country risk he joins us from London and finally özgür una Esat chicly is the anchor office director of the German Marshall Fund of the United States he joins us from the Turkish capital gentlemen welcome to you all Mecca met in Istanbul if I can come to you first was this a protest vote or something else well I think I think you know it is a message definitely given to the arc party as a party but I think if we look at the results I don't think we should come to a conclusion that this is you know like your questions I think posing a protest vote vote against President Erdogan himself because if we look at the June 24th elections when we held the divorce for presidential and parliamentary elections we saw that the party itself still received less votes than they are that the president aired on himself so and in the local elections right now we see that that 50/50 one and a half to 52 percent nearly vote is still there for them for the president marathon and the party although this is again a part of an alliance setting however you know in June 24 elections and also hours after the the most of the votes were counted prisoner Don this time around again said that you know there will be some self-evaluation made and the party will has taken the lessons that needs to be taken into consideration for for an evaluation and assessment for the party to come up and face the challenges or some of the the needs that needs to be addressed for a better performance next time so I don't know if we can call it a protest mode but of course there the loss of let's say the capital city and some of the other cities is a major shift however you know the constable things are not as clear yet so I think once things settle down in Istanbul then there will be a better chance to to you know say that whether or not this was a protest mode but right now I don't think this there has I mean our party is a clear winner of the the elections receiving most of the votes the fact that CHP has gained what is not necessarily it has not necessarily affected our party's overall votes in the country so I think maybe we can say yes CHP has gained ground given its alliance and given its may be strategically selecting candidates and maybe even becoming a party that now is willing to appeal to masses you know we have increased okay you you raised a lot of talking points but we do only have half an hour so let's just boil that down and talk to eggy second in London okay let's just talk first about the the handling of the financial crisis or his critics would say the mishandling of the country's financial crisis well of course that was most people would argue the single most important factor determining the outcome we saw on Sunday we saw that the government in Turkey had for a long time delaying what some would argue to be an inevitable outcome kicking the camera kicking the can down the road if you will and seeking to keep the the clockworks of the economy going for just a few months longer to get through yet another election but there was a point at which I think that strategy started to fail and we saw the result of that in the local elections over the weekend now the advantage that Turkey has is the fact that there is this unprecedented four year long period in which there will be no election contests and that gives the government a very good opportunity to undertake some of the more structural reforms that the economy desperately needs and that could potentially provide the government with a let's say a sense of having a dealt with some of its past mistakes and the lead-up to the next round of elections in 2023 a school in Ankara give us a sense for what the opposition did to go from their starting position to having this much traction within the the political scene of Turkey sure Peter but I would like to first say that actually the scene that we are seeing is not a landslide increase in the opposition's votes or a landslide decrease in the AKP party plus M HP's votes we see just a little bit shift away from the National Alliance to the from the people alliance to the nation alliance in certain cities and districts there are of course a couple of reasons why this has happened as mammatus said first of all the opposition or the nation alliance has managed to nominate candidates that appeal providers society including some of the voters of the governing coalition but apart from that they also managed to craft an alliance that appeals to message on top of the alliance that they had fought during the presidential election between the main opposition Republican People's Party and the newly funded Tea Party they managed to bring onboard the kurdish HDB but voluntarily without giving back anything and it was this kurdish vote for example that made a difference in many of the cities if we take istanbul as an example for simplicity during the last presidential election president our doors vote in istanbul was only 3.5 percent more than the sum of his the some of his competitors including ceratin de mirage the president of the Kurdish party so when these three parties came together there was only 3.5% vote difference with the AKP party okay just let me interrupt you there for a second no school because what you're saying of course statistically is a very accurate interpretation of how the numbers how we can unpack the numbers but the reality is surely can I suggest units this that the opposition starting or their starting point was a starting point defined by everything being stacked against them because of what mr. Erdogan did in the aftermath of the failed military coup you know voices of dissent have disappeared journalism is operating in a difficult environment in Turkey still so their starting point was not as easy as perhaps you would like to say it is Peter then let me let me say it in this way president Erdogan has been using polarization for a very long time to galvanize his own water base but he didn't realize that in doing so he was also galvanizing and consolidating the opposition in a way that they themselves would not be able to do if it wasn't for President Biden's help Mac Miceli in Istanbul what does this tell us about how politically savvy mr. Erdogan is now or not I mean putting out government-sponsored vegetable stalls obviously didn't get traction with any one people were it would appear able to see right through that I mean I mean if we're talking about President Aaron's leadership I think there's no questions there president Wong has been the leader of our party since it was founded but it has also been the leader of a very traditional voter base in Turkey and that is the center-right vote in Turkey and the fact that he has been able to consolidate the center-right voters be it under national tendencies or be it under more conservative tendencies or be it through his tangible projects that he has brought into Turkey being B through consolidating even the Kurdish votes in the southeast provinces I think his leadership is not is undamaged at the moment however there is something that are drawn himself is also saying and he has said it he has said the same thing when the party received about 40-some percent during parliamentary elections that the fact that the party itself needs to be continually adjusting itself to the needs of voters or to the demands of Hoarders and this is what they will I'm thinking they will do going forward starting from this week that there will be shufflings I'm thinking will be done in the cabinet or in the party administration however the the in the eyes of the people hired on is someone who can make a FaceTime call and gather millions out to defeat a military coup or a coup attempt ir dawn is a leader who people you know regardless of their political ideology when it becomes a national matter they stick to so in that sense his leadership and his party leadership I don't think it's that question at the moment however there is a question I mean there is also or you know the the criticism or maybe some sorts of demands are met by the party admitted party executives or other administration however people make a separation between the party and are adorned in this sense however when it comes back man I just I just want to put that point to egg a second in London so egg a he's got to in effect reshuffle his government keep his party together because there are rumors not of a split within the party but certainly the beginnings of what might be a fracturing effect if you will but he's also got to keep the country together and on top of that he's got to now because the elections are past and the presidential election is more than a couple of years away he's got to drill down into the issues of the economy because there's no money literally in the bank it's a very difficult task that lies ahead of the president that's for sure there is the economy that that will continue bleeding and some painful adjustments are necessary and that has been clear for a long time now Turkey can no longer continue with the credit fueled growth model that has been the case for a long time now since the AKP came into power that model simply needs to change and that will in pain entail pain in the short term and it's it's a question of whether the political authorities or mr. Ardoin himself have the patience to go through that and beyond that there is also geopolitical challenges lying ahead the situation with the US what what I view as a brewing crisis regarding Turkey's continued desire to purchase as/400 missile defense systems from Russia that will also be problematic for the Turkish economy because for example relations with the US is an indicator which international investors really take into accounts in in in terms of basing their decisions on on what to do with Turkey and that will definitely be something that weighs down on the economy in the one-year outlook ausco an anchor could it just be that after what five six votes in five years the electorate in Turkey are just tired of him and if he's got political savvy if he's got some political weight behind him still he's got to engage with that idea Peter I'm still concerned that we may be over interpreting this vote because if there was a landslide loss in the words of the AKP party we could have said that but it's not the case it's it's a it's a small shift so and it wasn't about president Alden these elections were about who will provide municipal services to the people and not who will govern the country but of course it's president Alduin and his ally day let partially that turn these elections into an issue of national existence that legitimizes such questions but I think that would be that would be an over interpretation what we see here is that not among the supporters of President add-on but among his opponents they are so tired of him that they now look over their differences and can unite otherwise how could a secular nationalist party a hardcore nationalist party an Islamist party and a Kurdish nationalist party come together actually they are tiredness o president aired one is now bringing them together and this is a huge challenge for president arrow in the future because in the past polarization always worked in his favor through polarization he could conduct a bigger vote share than his opponents but now through polarization through the polarization created by president aired on the opposition seem straight tilted the balance and this is a challenge for him again looking forward to that next election the presidential election does he have one part of his political DNA which the opposition don't obviously have at the moment and it might be can I suggest you this he is a gut politician he is instinctive he survived this long for a reason he is a political mastermind and I don't think even his opponents have any doubts about that but there are structural developments that could make things more difficult for him the economy is one of them and I agree with you about his point about the opposition finally managing to look over their differences and I would reinforce the the point about there not having been that much of a change in terms of support levels for one side or the other the voters to a great extent in Turkey are still locked within what I would call identity groups so the Islamists more broadly or that is of course a simplifying term conservative segments of the population still voting for our Diwan and the AKP and vice versa and the minor shifts we see between those groups have of course resulted in the big changes that we saw in the election over the weekend but when it comes to the next presidential election everyone is still leading by far and we are yet to see a politician that could rival him especially when it comes to that gut instinct that you were referring to okay Mac met in Istanbul so clearly he's still the most popular politician in tark in Turkey Bar None there is a slightly unpredictable disconnect between his popularity in relation to his party's popularity but for the opposition if he is vulnerable how does the opposition build on that because presumably they're now looking to the presidential elections as well that unity among the depress the opposition is not a very it's not an organic unity of course I mean we're not looking for organic unity among the politicians but if we look at their voters base that unity that comes from being anti-air Don is not a very sustained sustainable unity in the long run I mean now we are we're talking about a Kurdish I don't want to I don't want to label them as that but the the so-called Kurdish supporting party the HDP on one hand and we have the far-right nationalists on the other I mean how can that be sustainable in the long run and challenge a leader that has unified more than 50 percent being aired one I mean the opposition in the short term is United at the moment but I don't think that's a very sustainable one and this has worked in the local elections because simply they can nominate candidates that will appeal to certain districts or provinces but I think in the presidential or parliamentary elections that unity is not very sustainable it won't be creating some sort of intra alliance rifts giving these ideological differences however I don't mean Aaron needs to still tackle the economy to sustain his and maintain his popularity some of the Reforma land and structural changes needs to be implemented and his party needs to also adjust and be able to answer demands of the people and I think one of the strengths our party has had so far is the fact that they're in a continuous change to add to to maintain their political momentum in the eyes of the people okay one of the weaknesses of the Opposition is not to maintain that okay let's go he's always kind of pitched himself or spun himself as being the guarantor of prosperity prosperity that's always just around the corner going forward in the next a year or 18 months when say he goes to the IMF and the IMF say no actually we won't give you any money you've got to get it from someplace else how does he build on that how does he get prosperity into the economy well first of all would President erred on approach to IMF despite everything he has said about former politicians who have worked with Diane F yes II would because at the end of the day is a pragmatist and there are no elections at least there are no planned elections for the next four years but he would the first step of going to the approaching the IMF would be behind the curtains negotiations and he would not make it public before he has green light from the IMF and he would go to IMF only and if only there is a very serious situation and the alternative would be a heavy crisis in Turkey well if that is the situation nobody has an interest in a bankrupting Turkey so I do not think that I am f would turn him empty-handed so I think that if there is a serious crisis in Turkey president eldan will approach the IMF and I am IMF will not turn him T handed thank you such keen in London generally any president or prime minister that tries to push through policies of austerity regardless ver say if they are politically or not there's there's a very short shelf life for a politician that stays with austerity will his popularity now dip as he zeroes in on turning around the economy struck reforms for the economy will entail pain and that is likely to have an impact on advance popularity but whether that would be enough to bring him down I think that's the question my personal view is that Ardoin remains very popular he still does have the support of the 50% and he has some political capital in that sense that he could spend for pushing through these reforms in fact his longer-term political survival depends on it because if turkey's economic story is not transformed and turkey does not re-enter a growth spurt and that does not bode well for advance a longer-term political future and whatever he wants to achieve in the country beyond the four year outlook last question to America in Istanbul given all these problems Matt Matt is Turkey now heading into a better place over the next what two years or not because after that two-year period we're then heading towards the presidential election a couple of years after that look I mean something that traditionally has happened in Turkey is what changes after will there be a new Turkey after the elections if that question always rises question I mean as long as soon as the elections are over the life goes back to normal however whether or not it will go back to good or worse will depend of course on short-term midterm reforms the government will implement I just want to touch upon something that we were discussing the previous question with regards to IMF or other bodies that will may use some of their policies against Iran Aerith on at the moment he becomes vulnerable or due to an external factor people rally around him and I think would be it the US with the f-35 Sorby IMF if they choose to take a step against Iran I think that works against what they try to achieve if that is the weakening of iodine okay because pmax sometimes for which I apologize so I'm going to have to bring our conversation to a close but thank you to all our guests they were Mecca Michele it's a case that chin and özgür Olin is such cheeky and thank you to you two for you what company you can see the program again anytime via the website aljazeera.com and for further discussion go to our Facebook page that's facebook.com /aj Inside Story can also talk to us on twitter at AJ Inside Story or I'm at Peter W 1 Peter Dhabi and the entire team here in Doha the news is next we'll see you soon you

32 Replies to “🇹🇷 Is Turkey's president under threat? | Inside Story

  1. Erdogan is a great Muslim leader. He has done a lot to strengthen Turkish economic, social and industrial development. Turkish people love him and we have seen how they defeated the military coup against Erdogan. He is surrounded by so many enemies who wanted him to step down. AK party should learn lessons from the election failure and exert greater efforts to win the hearts of Turkish people.

  2. Turkey was nothing before Erdogan's party came into power. Turkish people should be grateful & proud of Erdogan for making Turkey strong and a world player in the period they were in power. I remember Turkey in the 1990s when the current opposition was in power, Turkey back then was 'trash & a joke' and no one took it seriously when CHP and the military ruled. The AK party changed all of that and brought Turkey to the world stage. The world now takes notice of Turkey and respects it. Turkey is now strong and an emerging power to be reckoned with.. Long live Erdogan!!

  3. The claim: "Despite the loss, Erdogan still won more than half of votes" is wrong.
    Their TOTAL vote, including the nationalist party together reached 51.6%. Erdogan's vote alone is 44%.

  4. It seems to be rather a strong signal than "a major shift". Erdogan would be well advised to cooperate with CHP and also bind them into some sort of "national accord cooperation" in order to build the new presidential republic and also to overcome the economic woes.

  5. This real democracy long live Turkey AKP party will be learning from this & do the right thing for the people of Turkey, much respect from Somali brother in UK London,

  6. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, he’s the man for Turkey 🇹🇷, yes the opposition party will do everything to cheat & overthrow him well done to AKP

  7. hope he lost hes no good he only wants to be rich he lives in a palece and the peaple are strugling hes a pig a dog

  8. I just want to know how much do the Ziopigs pay Al Jazeera to propagate news against Muslim leadership of prominence.

    Where is the news on the crimes of your pig masters namely Drump (with a silent R) and Satanyahu?

  9. Thats what you get when you oppose the zionists leaders by buying s400s from Russia.
    You like your western freedom and democracy Turks?

  10. Turkey is a country with one of the biggest army in the world and yet salaries in Estern europe are bigger … my mum has 300E pension after working for turkey more than 40 y ….

  11. Turkey should'nt go back in the times before ataturk … is dark… Erdogan is a dictator . Turkey should be in europe not in jihad

  12. Turkey Is not good with its People ,See what this Fake Turks are doing to minorities and Democratic People.

  13. Whatever happens to turkish economy, is not Erdogan's fault, Turkey's enemies have been working day and night to bring down the economy so to blame Erdogan.

  14. Whatever happens to turkish economy, is not Erdogan's fault, Turkey's enemies have been working day and night to bring down the economy so to blame Erdogan.

  15. YOU HAVE NO IDEA BUT AL JAZEERA, HIRING THESE HIDEOUS WESTERN IMPERIALIST LOYALIST HOSTS, ARE (BEHIND THE CURTAINS) HARMING TURKISH-QATARI RELATIONS MORE THAN YOU CAN IMAGINE.

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