Can TRUMP CONQUER the LATINO VOTE? – VisualPolitik EN


In
recent decades, Donald Trump stands out as the president who’s been the most hostile
in his attitude towards Hispanics. Perhaps the most hostile in the entire history
of the United States. His comments against immigration, Mexicans,
Salvadorans… you don’t have to look very far to understand why a good part of the Hispanic
population can’t stand President Trump. But don’t get me wrong. Here on VisualPolitik, we’re all for people
changing their mind and their behaviour. Come on, I’m sure that ten years ago you
didn’t have the same views as you do today. That’s certainly true for me. After all, self-correction is a sign of wisdom… And you know what? It may come as a surprise but this is what
Trump is doing in his own weird way. You don’t believe me? Well… He really is! Check this out: What a change, don’t you think? So the question is… What on earth happened? Well… No, Trump didn’t undergo a deep spiritual
transformation, nor was he suddenly moved to empathize with the Hispanic community’s
situation. And no, it’s not even because he’s a fan
of Jennifer Lopez’s last hit. Do you want to know what really lies behind
this game change? Well… listen up. (INTRO) The Hispanic vote. Yeah, remember these three words because they
may be key in the 2020 US elections. To give you an idea, Hispanics already account
for 18% of the entire United States population and this percentage just keeps growing. (CHART) Hispanics are already the largest minority
group in the country. (CHART) According to every projection and demographic
model, by 2060 the percentage of Hispanics will exceed 26% of the population of the United
States. In other words, just over 1 in 4 Americans
will be Hispanic. Obviously, this will give them a gradually
increasing electoral influence. So making policies or giving speeches against
Hispanics doesn’t look like a great way to reap political success. Seems pretty obvious, doesn’t it? However, just a second, because nowadays the
electoral weight of the Hispanic community, is much, much weaker than it could be. Why? Because if there’s something that characterizes
the Hispanic vote in the United States, is that it’s very hard to mobilize. Hispanics are known for their low voter turnout
in United States elections – Bad, very, very bad. But… Why does this happen? What exactly is the Hispanic electorate? What concerns do they have? How is the Hispanic vote distributed throughout
the country? It sounds like a lot of questions, but I promise
you that we’ll answer each and every one of them. Do you want to get a cross section of the
Hispanic vote in the United States? Well… here we go… (HISPANICS, THE MAJOR MINORITY) If we take a look at the main ethnic groups
in the United States, we’ll notice that the Hispanic population has some peculiar
characteristics. And as we’ve said, we aren’t exactly talking
about a small community. Almost 60 million Hispanics lived in the US
by the end of 2018. This makes the United States the second largest
Hispanic country in terms of population. Although it seems hard to believe, the United
States has more Hispanic people than the entire populations of countries such as Colombia,
Argentina or Spain. The Hispanic community of the United States
grows, in demographic terms, at a rate of 2% per year. And in recent decades their standard of living
has also improved a lot. To give you an idea, the current rate of unemployment
for Hispanics is close to its historical low, below 5%; the dropout rate decreased from
29.4% in 1992 to 9.2% in 2015. And the rate of Hispanics enrolled in universities
rose from 25% to 47% in just 10 years, between 2005 and 2015. These are very, very good numbers… And these changes guarantee Hispanics a much
greater economic, political and social influence in the years to come. To illustrate this, just since 2000, Hispanics’
purchasing power in the US has increased by 181%, rising to $1.4 trillion. And… do you know what this means? That the United States is the largest Hispanic
economic power in the world. The Hispanic economy in the United States
is larger than the entire economy of Spain or Mexico. Hispanic power will only increase in the United
States. However, it’s not all good news. If we talk in terms of income and poverty,
the truth is that the Hispanic population is still far behind the white population and
other minority groups such as Asian-Americans. Despite their rise in upward mobility, more
than 19% of Hispanics, that’s roughly 1 in 5, are still below the poverty line according
to US standards and their average income per capita doesn’t surpass $19,000 per year,
which is half of what the average white person makes. But… let’s not get off track, let’s
RETURN to politics… which is what this video is truly about. The Hispanic population is very young. Their average age is 10 years lower than the
national average and 15 years lower than the average age of the white population in the
US. These demographics obviously influence the
community’s political preferences and their degree of participation. It may also explain why, while Hispanics already
account for 18% of the country’s population, in terms of potential voters they barely account
for 11%. And on top of that, they vote less frequently. That’s why their political influence is
still relatively small. But this is also changing. (THE DYSFUNCTION OF THE HISPANIC VOTE) Dear friends of Visual Politik, at first glance
of the map, the distribution of the Hispanic population could indicate that they are a
determining community when it comes to the elections. (MAP) Why? Because, as you all know, in the US elections,
the presidential candidate who obtains the majority in a state gets all of that state’s
delegates. That happens in virtually every case… It’s all or nothing. That’s why the presidential victory depends
on getting more delegates than the opponent, not more votes. And that makes the states with the most delegate
seats the prize that all presidential candidates desire. Well it turns out that Hispanics have a very
high presence in those prized states. The Hispanic population is mostly concentrated
in California, Texas, New York, Florida and Illinois. Five of the six states with the most delegates
distributed in the elections: 171 out of a total of 538. Do you see why at first glance they seem to
be so crucial in the elections? Well… The truth is that they are… and they aren’t. Let’s see, many analysts claim that the
Hispanic vote can decide presidents, but the truth is that it isn’t so clear today. At least not for the 2020 elections. The problem? We’ve already told you: Hispanics hardly
vote. Among all ethnic groups, Hispanics are the
least electorally mobilized. For example, in the last presidential elections,
in 2016, just over 57% of Hispanics with the right to vote registered to do so. That’s a low number, but what’s even worse
is that in the end only 47.6% actually voted. Almost 20 points less than the political participation
of non-Hispanic whites. (CHART) So why is it that Hispanics avoid elections
so much? Well… Well, there are many factors, but the most
important one is that it’s mostly a young population. And what can I say, outside the VisualPolitik
Community, it seems like many young people tend to skip politics. But that’s not the only reason. The lower average level of education and income
also feeds political apathy. But, at this point, many of you are probably
already thinking… Come on, this is normal, it happens in lots
of countries. Well yes… and no. We’re here to tell you: Little by little,
this divergence regarding the non-Hispanic white population is lowering. Hispanics are studying more, making more money
and voting more. For example, look at what happened in the
most recent elections, the midterm elections. (AUDIO: Latino turnout up 174% in 2018 midterms
elections, Democrats say. The Guardian) And, of course… you may be thinking… If the problem of mobilizing the Hispanic
community is being solved… Could they be decisive in 2020? Well… Let’s see. (COULD HISPANICS DECIDE THE 2020 ELECTION?) Do you have a good memory? Do you remember Trump’s words which we saw
at the beginning of this video? No, no, I’m not referring to the ones in
which he insults Hispanics, but the later quotes, in which he suddenly seems to love
them. Well, that change of opinion could have a
lot to do with what we’re going to see next. (AUDIO: Hispanics could make a difference
in 2020 (if they turn out to vote). – Univision) An important fact: the 2020 elections will
be the first elections in the history of the United States in which Hispanics will be the
minority with the most electoral power, surpassing the African-American population. Yes, With 32 million potential voters, by
2020 Hispanics will account for 13% of the electoral roll. There will be 2 million more of them than
African-American voters. And nowadays Hispanic dynamics are quite clear:
2 out of 3 usually vote for Democratic Party candidates. But the explanation for this isn’t that
they are Democrats or Republicans, it lies in the systematic commitment that the Republican
Party has had to oppose them in recent years. Yes, Despite what is commonly believed, the
Hispanic vote is extremely volatile, perhaps the most volatile. Most don’t identify themselves as dedicated
supporters of one particular party, but rather oscillate based on the candidates and the
political proposals they put on the table. And the Trump campaign is well aware of that. You see, all studies suggest that the economy,
along with the improvement of education and safety, are the three issues that Hispanic
voters care most about. And the truth is that the US economy has been
performing quite well in recent years. For example, the income of Hispanic households
is the fastest growing, and also remember that Hispanic unemployment is at a record
low. In fact, even though it’s still low, at
just 30%, Trump’s popularity among Hispanics has slightly rebounded. Therefore, although it may come as a surprise,
the Trump campaign hasn’t given up on the attempt to improve their support levels among
the Hispanic community. The “Vamos to Victory” campaign is a good
example of that. (AUDIO: More hispanics think that Trump’s
campaign have the community in mind, but those who say they will vote for him are a minority. – Univision) And the question is, could this be Trump’s
last card? A demobilized Hispanic vote would definitely
benefit him, but… What if they were to mobilize? Wouldn’t it be more sensible to reinforce
his position in that new voting ground? Or at the very least stop giving Hispanics
reasons to mobilize against him. The truth is that everything indicates that
in 2020, more Hispanics will vote. Their participation is set to break all records
for a presidential election, just as it did in the midterm elections. (AUDIO Hispanic voter turnout in 2018 increased
dramatically in six states, analysis finds. Hispanic voter turnout increased significantly
in the 2018 midterms as compared to the 2014 election, according to a Univision analysis
of turnout in California, Florida, Nevada, New Jersey, New York and Texas.” CBS News) Do some of these states sound familiar to
you? Exactly, you got it. Out of the five states where the Hispanic
vote increased the most, no less than four, California, Florida, New York and Texas, are
among the ones with the most delegates. In other words, they are the most important
regarding presidential elections. So, having seen this, will the Hispanic community
be the deciding factor this time? Will Trump manage to improve his popularity
among Hispanics? Because, in spite of everything, if the economy
continues to do well… it’s not entirely unlikely. However, the trade war with China is having
harsh consequences for the US and economic slowdown is a reality. If 2020 gets worse, it may even be Hispanics
who end up throwing Trump out of the White House. That would be ironic… Don’t you think? Anyway… now it’s your turn: Will Trump get re-elected by seducing the
Hispanic vote, or are we on the verge of an epic revenge? So I really hope you enjoyed this video, please
hit like if you did, and don’t forget to subscribe for brand new videos. Don’t forget to check out our friends at
the Reconsider Media Podcast – they provided the vocals in this episode that were not mine. Also, this channel is possible because of
Patreon, and our patrons on that platform. Please consider joining them and supporting
our mission of providing independent political coverage. And as always, I’ll see you in the next
video.

100 Replies to “Can TRUMP CONQUER the LATINO VOTE? – VisualPolitik EN

  1. Russians, Ukrainians and the rest are fighting corruption for the welfare of their children and a corruption free tomorrow while half of America is trying to overthrow the only President who could do so!

  2. I can tell by the focus of your beard hairs you like to sleep on you left side…how weird is that! Just like Trump sees some things you may not agree with.
    Don't get me started on particulars.

  3. A lot of White/Castizo Hispanics like Hispanos, Tejanos (both mainly descendants of Spanish colonists), Cubans, Northern Mexicans and the anti-communist Venezuelan community in Miami will vote for him. Republicans consistently get 30% of Latino vote and I think Trump will top that. A lot of Latinos dont like to admit it but our community is divided along racial lines as well …. just look at politics in South and Central America.

  4. The Hispanic vote isn't really a block. The concerns of 1st generation immigrants differ from the 2nd, 3rd generation, etc. Then there are the Hispanics that never were immigrants that live in the SW states (those states that used to be part of Mexico). Just because you are Hispanic, doesn't mean your political views are liberal. The Hispanic vote depends on whether individuals are still religious, socioeconomic status, educational level, where a person may live, etc. There are no large groups like in the African American community that push individuals to vote a certain way. I know as many Hispanics here in Dallas, TX that are Republicans as Democrats.

  5. No. And he should stop trying. The only future for the Republican Party is to become the party for White people and White interests, which it already is de facto.

  6. If the "Trump Creature", manages to persuade the US Latino voters to support him, that will be a very sad reflection on the collective IQ of the Latino electorate !… It's common knowledge that the "Trump Creature" groupies, are not exactly intellectually gifted; and quite likely have, two very closely related parents !…

  7. Trump would win the Hispanic vote, regardless what democrats say about him. It’s true, he has said very and very controversial but, Hispanics aren’t stupid and if trump just says “ if you vote for the other person, all what you gain with me will disappear” and he may be right. Right now, as Simon said, we’re at our lowest unemployment levels and if a democrat wins, that would be history as the economy might go to hell

  8. Simons a brit, can't expect him to know anything more than the news reports. Trump was attacking illegal immigration and a certain gang that is beyond horrific. Most latinos know that. The last census changed a lot, Hispanic is no longer considered a race, they make them choose white, black, Indian ect on top of an extra asking if they are Hispanic as well, but not all count that. My exwife and kids ar from P. R. I do a lot of her paperwork.

  9. Hey Simon, you have that wrong, Cali and New York have little say in the election. They can only have that number of delegates no matter how many people are there. It was made that way so the rest of the country gets represented and not the minority living in a small area. The prez is supposed to be there for everyone, Not just Cali and New York.

  10. Thank you for proving once again that people outside North America are more clueless about USA than USA is about the rest of the world.

  11. ‪I see the motivation #YouTube The United States controversial political media corrupting intellectual consumers‬.

  12. Im Hispanic and every member in my family is going to vote for him, the truth is, the Democratic party is nothing but lunatics.

  13. Speaking as a Dominican that first came to this country at the age of three, to any Hispanics that vote for Trump I say the following “Fuck you, you fucking imbecile!”

  14. people that vote for Trump evil of anarchy or just want to see the system fail or want everything in the world to crumble in front of them or their team Trump which is like a football team that's more like a cult impeach the Senate will be a better America honestly I don't even know if you can impeach the Senate but it would be great if we could because then we would end a lot of this bullshit with Mitch McConnell's ass

  15. Probably hard to gauge tho since most places consider "hispanics" white or Caucasian. (which does sorta make sense since they are approx 60-70% European)

  16. As recently as 2004 Bush won 44% of both Hispanic and Asian votes. The idea that minorities vote overwhelmingly democrat is a very recent one (except blacks, they've been super-democratic for ever).

  17. I always thought the Asians are the least politicaly active. Not aware the Hispanics are even lesser. Thanks for the info Simon.

  18. Hispanic people are seen as unintelligent to the majority of the population. I'm not saying they are just that's how they are perceived

  19. Hispanics in the US are not a homogeneous group. Trump's tirade was against the illegal immigration coming across the southern border not against Hispanics in general.

  20. Simon, I am Hispanic and my family and I have always voted. Even at 80 years old my Mom still goes and votes ever year, not just for President.

  21. He won an election with out massive minority voters he could do it again Trump dont need to win any minority vote maybe just maybe he wants to help everyone in the country

  22. I’m Hispanic and I became a US citizen this year. Let me tell you, most Hispanics tend to be conservative in social issues. A big one is abortion. However, it’s impossible to forget how much the Republican Party has ostracized Hispanics. This is why I believe the Republican Party will disintegrate over time and a new Conservative party with emerge. The Republican Party won’t survive after Trump

  23. This doesn't matter too much anyways. Most of those states are going to vote for Democrats anyways. So in a way, they are only of so much importance. If Dem nominee wins by 52 percent or 30 percent in a state it doesn't matter.

  24. As a Latino, most of my views are conservative. One thing I can say is this orange clown of a president is no conservative. Almost 4 years later and no wall?!

  25. The Hispanic vote is broken up into many different nationalities, but the majority of the Hispanic minority in the US is Mexican/Mexican American. Most Mexicans Americans were aware that Trump wasn't necessarily talking about Mexicans when he said "They're not sending their best" what he was talking about were the convicts that were being sent over along with the Salvadorian and Guatemalan economic migrants by Mexico. Essentially, Mexico didn't want to deal with the economic migrants coming from south of their own border so they gave them free passage through Mexico on to the USA. This became very apparent and pretty much vindicated Trump's remarks with the "migrant trains" situation that boiled up. I think most Mexican Americans realize this and they will vote for Trump in greater numbers in 2020.

  26. Hes been the most hostile towards latinos really? Except president polk declared war and tried to annex much of Mexico. Bit of an exaggeration don’t ya think?

  27. Illegal immigration is fantastic gir Mexico. Money from illegal immigration into the US is Mexico's number one industry far-out ranking 2nd which is oil. It's also great for rich people and people who hire illegals under the table. It hurts Americans mostly low-wage income and minorities, especially black men.

  28. You know Hispanics have the tendency to work and get payed cash so they won't have to report the money they earn which usually is the major source of income in the garage Hispanic household

  29. Trump's comments about Mexicans when he started his run for office was less than artful but his point
    was not incorrect, illegals are bring crime to the United States.
    Overall Trump is probably the least racist president we have had, he generally treats the general population
    as "Americans" and not as some minority subgroup.
    He is not afraid to point out the obvious, like some nations in Central America and Africa are sh*tholes and
    it hasn't gone unnoticed the millions feeling from them. But on the whole Trump, unlike Democrats
    is not playing off one group against another.
    The way things are now, there really is no one important voting bloc in the United States, combinations are
    required the gain office. The Democrats played the race game and loss blue collar white workers, causing
    a loss for them in 2016.
    Now if Simon wants to talk about one of the gamiest aspects of American politics, he should do a deep history
    of the Democrat Party. A whole lotta dirt there, good for at least 2- 20 minute videos. They were one of the
    inspirations for the National Socialist Workers Party and well, you know how that story ended.

  30. i wish you would do better when addressing contemporaneous american political issues. eg the opening video clip you show of trump apparently disparaging hispanics. you don't include nor indicate that he was speaking of those who were entering the country illegally and why they wouldn't be permitted legal residency.

  31. Yes, he can conquer the Latino vote. Trump voters are of below-average IQ points or billionaires that want to pay no tax. so as they say in the USA do the maths

  32. "Can TRUMP CONQUER the LATINO VOTE?"
    Sure! No reason that he can't!
    Heck, his support among the *black* community is now at *34* percent (IIRC)! ( No surprise, given that unemployment – including *black* unemployment – is now at 50-year lows. )
    So, yeah, if he can get the black community "on board" then he can *surely* get the Latino community on board as well!

  33. Latino here… who knows the truth. Trump never hated us. The media spun his words with sound bites and never would show his whole answer or interview. He tells it like it is. The Mexican government releases hardened criminals not affiliated with cartels. And they allow them to flee to America to safe money.

  34. There are definite Latino Trump supporters. I ain't one. I voted for Jill Stein in 2016 and Bernie in the Dem primary. If Bernie gets screwed again by the DNC I vote left leaning Third Party. I have voted 3rd Party since 2000.

  35. Some Hispanic people are analogous to Sicilian people, black people and Native Amsricans. As a kid, I thought Filipinos were close, as they often had Spanish names. My old filipina landlady told me no one speaks Spanish P.I. side anymore. Politics involves machines in many U.S. cities. Italian-Americans went from mostly Democrat as they landed mostly in Democrat cities. As they stayed in the U.S. they became partly Republican. My Sicilian Grandfather became Republican in 1960, but didn't tell me why.

  36. Hispanics have voted in many elections. Many Republican Presidents has done a lot . For Hispanics. Ronald Reagan, George bush and George bush JR . Look what happened in Florida with George Bush Jr . Cuba is a major issue with Cuban Americans . Many Texans both Hispanics and whites vote Republican

  37. Media likes to lump Hispanics into one. But they basically divide themselves into two groups: citizens and illegals. Trump get a lot of support among the first group. And what about the second group? Why, they don't (supposed to) vote.

  38. The stone cold political reality is that both parties can safely ignore 42, 43 out of the 50 states. Latinos do not make up an important political block in those 7 or 8 "battleground states." So Republicans don't really need to pander to the entire latino community. The Democrats also don't need to pander to latinos, at least for the general election, as they statistically vote Democrat anyway. Even if latino activists are upset about Obama's number of deportations or the immigration policies of the Democratic candidates, latinos are not so upset to threaten to vote Republican, and a vote for a 3rd party candidate would be futile.

    The issue is that when the political parties do engage latinos, all they talk about is immigration and nothing else. There is no talk about the economy, healthcare, foreign affairs, education policy, etc…. The problem is compounded when latinos with a large media presence, like the activist (and journalist?) Jorge Ramos specifically tells the political parties that latinos only care about immigration as the defining issue. There are also militant immigration activists that heckle the parties for not "doing enough" for immigrants. These are the minority in the latino community but they are the loudest voices, giving the mistaken belief the latino vote will go to the one that promises "green cards to illegals".

    Because of that, we get the scramble of candidates for the Democratic primary trying to out-latino each other with policies ranging from abolishig ICE; decriminalizing illegal border crossing; only deporting those with "serious" criminal convictions; and other policies that is "open borders" in all but name.

    Just look at the flack heading Biden's way when he said he would go back to the previous Obama policy of deporting those with criminal convictions, multiple immigration law violations, and recent arrivals. He was confronted by one of these immigration activists mentioned above, that wanted a promise from Biden that he would not deport ANYONE, including those with criminal convictions. Think about that……the activist wants a policy of NO deportations. The general public would never accept such a foolish proposal!

  39. Trump has an orange face and purple eyes – and an IQ that can be counted on the gangrenous toes remaining on his left foot. The "man" is a fucking moron.

  40. Hispanic can never decide nothing. Because Hispanic is not a race, either you’re African, indigenous, or white Spanish speaking person. As an African Spanish speaker from the DR I am aligned with my Afro people.

  41. A lot of Hispanics (which is an ethnic group not a race ) and latinx (which is a culture not a race) identity as white and are sometimes racist towards the afrolatinx people in their countries depending on which country. So yes the ones that come here would vote for him.

  42. What about voter suppression of the Hispanic community???
    https://www.npr.org/2018/10/23/659784277/republican-voter-suppression-efforts-are-targeting-minorities-journalist-says

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