* The EU’s ‘SECRET’ Brexit Negotiation EXPOSED 🙄


Hello, I stumbled upon the EU’s secret negotiation plan in the form of this slide presented by the chief EU negotiator at the European Council. This slide is amazing and I want to talk to you about it. So, since the Brexit breakup the EU and the UK have been trying unsuccessfully to broker a deal, and this slide makes it painfully clear why that has made such little progress over such a long time. It started with brexit where the UK voted to leave the European Union; now, what that means isn’t exactly clear because the EU has a core center but it also has many orbits of relationships. So, the EU and the UK needed to figure out where they were as a couple and the UK has a list of deal-breakers that, at least at time of recording, are non-negotiable- and that’s fine! Everyone has relationship deal-breakers. It would be unhealthy not to. Anyway, core no more the EU’s next closest relationships are with Norway Iceland and Liechtenstein as part of the European Economic Area. This is a kind of “EU Light” They’re part of the unified EU economy with the EU’s four freedoms: Free movement of goods, free movement of services, free movement of capital, and free movement of people So, as an Irish citizen, since Ireland is “Core EU”, I could go live in a cabin in Norway, even though they’re not Core EU because of the free movement of people and vice versa Now for the UK free movement to people is a huge deal Shut it down – deal-breaker This makes an EEA style relationship. Just impossible So the next relationship orbital out is Switzerland who has a unique relationship with the EU She’s not EU core, she’s also not in the EEA, and she is completely landlocked by EU core members (I mean except for Liechtenstein) So perhaps inevitably despite not being part of the EU in any way she has over a hundred bilateral treaties with the EU integrating their economies which means that Switzerland has given up complete regulatory autonomy on goods and services to facilitate trade This is also a deal breaker. Switzerland’s treaties grant freedom of movement– deal-breaker –and Switzerland makes significant financial contributions to the EU– deal breaker. These two things are also part of the EEA So while Switzerland isn’t an EU member, in fact, she is basically in practice, but also, like the EEA members, lacks representation in the Parliament of EU Core So, Switzerland’s relationship with the EU is also not one that the UK wants to emulate this now moves us to the outermost orbitals and we get into the really deep asterisks of European Union foreign relationships This is stuff like the European Eastern Partnership and the deep and comprehensive trade agreements Which sounds like political dirty talk or the European neighbourhood policy. a lot of the aims of these things is to bring neighbours more in line with Europe either with what the EU politely calls “The Promotion of Human Rights” or trade integration but both of these bring up the final deal breakers for the UK taking Ukraine as an example, while not remotely in EU member or even close, she has agreed to let the European Court of Justice have some jurisdictional power in her borders This is required by the EU for Ukrainian participation in Interpol A kind of FBI for the EU that works on cross-border crime. Nonetheless European Court of Justice jurisdiction does mean giving up some sovereignty on some issues and that’s a deal breaker or take Turkey who can participate in trade negotiations under the aegis of the EU Presumably to benefit from the trading power a large bloc has but this means Turkey doesn’t have complete independence in matters of trade policy Deal-breaker and so now we’ve passed the outermost orbital. Where a relationship even means anything and so end up in an inevitable no deal with the EU and UK’s relationship being just regular countries to each other in the World Trade Organization Membership of which is basically every country on Earth So the progress from EU core out to No Deal is what this slide is showing: why the EU thinks that path is the only path but the UK has been saying very loudly she wants to deal while also saying brexit means brexit She wants independence but also wants a relationship that’s deeper and more comprehensive with the EU than just the cold WTO rules, but for the EU it’s impossible to see how to satisfy those desires contradictory without triggering the UK safeword Which is probably why this EU negotiation strategy slide wasn’t a secret but was published back in December of 2017 by the lead negotiator in front of the heads of state because this isn’t a secret strategy It’s a clear illustration of the mechanistic results of all of the UK’s deal-breakers I really do think this is a pretty amazing infographic in terms of clarity for a horrifically complicated topic which is why I just had to make this footnote to share it with you because I could not bear to let it fade away into my notes as just part of the background reading anyway that is why the brexit timeline has been so long with so little happening the UK has mutually exclusive wants as also discussed in the main video in a different area and It’s really all down to the UK She could stick with the deal-breakers and go it alone Or she can drop some and settle in an orbital relationship with the EU, but she can’t have both I guess We’ll see what happens soon maybe

‘Political meltdown’ grips UK after Theresa May’s Brexit defeat


JUDY WOODRUFF: And we continue our look at
today’s vote and where the U.K. goes from here with Sir Peter Westmacott. He had a 40-year career in the British Diplomatic
Service and he served as his country’s ambassador to the United States. Sir Peter Westmacott, welcome back to the
“NewsHour.” So, what does today’s Parliament vote, rejecting
this latest plan, what does it mean for the prospects of Britain leaving the E.U.? Is it now more likely or less likely? PETER WESTMACOTT, Former British Ambassador
to the United States: Well, we are now in a state of some political meltdown, as your
correspondent was just explaining. I think at the moment it means that it is
less likely that we leave on the 29th of March, as scheduled, because of today’s vote, which
was resoundingly against Theresa May’s package, but also because, tomorrow, parliamentarians
are very likely to vote heavily against the idea of leaving with no deal. So, if you haven’t got Theresa May’s deal,
and you haven’t got no deal, then what have you got? Answer, on the third day, on Thursday, there
will be a vote about whether to ask for an extension of the 29th of March deadline from
the European Commission. And at the moment, that is what is most likely
to happen in the near future. So I think leaving on the 29th of March is
feeling a little less likely than it was before tonight’s vote. JUDY WOODRUFF: So, you’re saying parliamentarians
tomorrow likely to say, OK, we need some kind of deal if we’re going the leave, the question
is, what does it look like? PETER WESTMACOTT: Well, it’s not even as clear
as that, I’m afraid, Judy. What the parliamentarians will like say is,
we don’t like the idea of what is crashing out with no deal, because it would be chaotic
in a whole lot of different ways. And neither the European Union nor the United
Kingdom is ready for that. But what they’re not saying is what they would
like, and that’s part of the prime minister’s frustration. She rushed off to Strasbourg over the weekend
to try and put a few improvements to her package, but, unfortunately, without checking first
with her own law officer, the attorney general, thought that the package would do the trick. And he then opined this morning, saying it
doesn’t give the legal guarantees that she had hoped for. And so result was the Parliament said, this
isn’t good enough. So we’re a bit stuck in that sense. The most likely thing, therefore, is extending
the timetable, if the European side will agree. And a lot of the signs today — this evening
— since the vote, are that the European Commission and the European member states are not giving
this away for nothing, that they will have their own views as to how long the extension
might be. And there may be some conditions that are
not to the liking of the United Kingdom. So you could still end up crashing out, but
it feels to me it is not so likely that it will happen on the 29th of March because there
is likely to be a vote for an extension, if the Europeans agree to it, on Thursday. JUDY WOODRUFF: Peter Westmacott, why has this
been so messy and so difficult? What’s at the core of what’s going on here? PETER WESTMACOTT: The core of it, Judy, is
that it was always going to be very, very difficult. You can decide if you have got a box of eggs
in front of you whether you want to scramble them, fry them, poach them or whatever it
is. But once you have scrambled them, unscrambling
eggs is really difficult and a hard thing to do. And many of us, of course, said that at the
time. But fast-forward to the results of the referendum. But one of the problems is that Theresa May
decided that, in order to get herself a fresh mandate and a bigger majority, she would hold
a general election, when she didn’t need to, 18 months or so ago. And she lost her majority with it. And so now she’s totally dependent on getting
any business done in the House of Commons on 10 votes from Northern Irish members of
Parliament. And, frankly, it’s clear that if the law officer
this morning, if the attorney general had said it was OK legally, probably, those 10
Democratic Unionist Party M.P.s would have said, we can live with it, and probably enough
of the Conservative Brexiteers would have gone along with it as well. So she is somewhat held hostage by these 10
votes in Northern Ireland because of the fact that she lost her majority earlier on. So that’s made the government’s position politically
extremely fragile all the way through. Added to that, I think the Conservative Party,
never mind the majority, or the lack of, has had real difficulty working out amongst themselves
what sort of Brexit they want. They have been riven in two, indecisive, unable
to sort things out. And so there’s been a great deal of muddle
over the last 2.5 years, to the frustration, I have to say, of a lot of the British people. JUDY WOODRUFF: And is that any one person’s
fault, or is it just the fault of the system? PETER WESTMACOTT: Well, you can point the
finger of blame on lots of people. You can point the finger of blame, if you
wish to, at David Cameron for having called the referendum in the first place, thinking
that he’d be able to win it if it happened. You can point the finger of blame, if you
want to, to the prime minister, because she is the head of the government which has conducted
these negotiations, to no avail, over the last 2.5, three years. Or you can point the finger of blame to some
very hard-line Brexiteers, who promised a certain number of things at the time of the
referendum and afterwards which turned out to be neither true nor deliverable. And they have hung in there, making the prime
minister’s life really extremely difficult. So — and you can probably think of a whole
lot of other people who you can blame for it. Some people would say the commission are being
intransigent. I don’t actually buy that, because it was
the British people who asked to leave. And we’re the ones who brought this upon ourselves. And we asked for this Irish backstop, which
is the proximate cause of the defeat of the prime minister’s package. And then we ask for it to be changed. So I think it’s a little harsh to say that
the people in Brussels have been inflexible. JUDY WOODRUFF: And just very quickly, finally,
why should the rest of the world pay close attention to this, the United States, the
rest of the global economy? PETER WESTMACOTT: I think it matters to the
United States for two principal reasons. One is that the United Kingdom is a very business-friendly
economy, which is the obvious port of entry, especially for English-speaking peoples, to
the European single market. And we have had lots of inward investment
from companies building in the U.K., investing in the U.K. to get access to the E.U. And if that is taken away by the terms of
the Brexit deal and — or no deal, that will be a problem. Secondly, I think the United Kingdom in the
European Union is a force, if you like, for the anglophone world. It has been a means of trying to ensure that
some of America’s points of view, policies, preferences are transmitted to the European
Union. And I think that could be lost when we leave,
how we leave. And, thirdly, I think the European Union itself
is weakened. Of course, I would say this, wouldn’t I? but I hear it from my French and German and
other friends. If the U.K. is no longer there, and the only
two big powers in the European Union are France and Germany, who often find it difficult to
agree on things, then I think the European Union is weaker. And the people who are rubbing their hands
are the people who are in the Kremlin. JUDY WOODRUFF: Well, we are watching it all
very closely. Peter Westmacott, we thank you.

Political Spectrum Explained


In our Modern political world, we often hear
terms like left-wing politics and right-wing politics. We often get confused and misunderstood these
terms. So, what do these terms mean and where do
they come from So hi guys this is Pratik and you are watching
eclectic – The political terms left wing and right wing
were first used in the ideological context during the French revolution of the 18th century. In the French Revolution, Left supported the
revolution, they supported overthrowing the king while the right wing supported the monarchy
means they supported the king. This idea of the left supporting change and
the right wanted to keep the status quo continues today and is key in some of their philosophy. Our modern political world is divided into
these two ideologies. On the Left, there are communist, socialist
and liberals. They all hate capitalism and the free market
economy. On the right, there are conservatives and
capitalists. They favor capitalism and free market economy. The political spectrum from left to right
looks like these Communist, socialist, Green Politics (Environmentalism),
Christian democratic, conservative and right-wing extremist. The left promotes equal society. They believe that government should play a
substantial role in people lives. Left wing governments increase regulations
and taxes on businesses. Left literally promotes a socialistic idea
of taking money from rich by imposing heavy taxes on them and giving that money to poor
people through welfare programs and many government subsidies for poor. The left also calls itself progressive because
they oppose the death penalty and support same-sex marriage and women’s right to abortion. The left also promotes the idea of open borders
and favors immigration. Now let’s talk the economics of the left
Economically left believes in the Keynesian approach. It means increasing taxes when the economy
and business is booming or making the profit and spending that money when the economy is
weak. They oppose the free market economy. The left wants the complete control of the
economy whereas some leftists want moderate control over the economy. But this approach mostly fails because increasing
taxes and more regulations on the businesses are not good for the economy. It kills the productivity of businesses. If you increase the taxes on people, they
will spend less on shopping and services and businesses won’t generate more revenue. That is the reason under leftist government
economy stagnates. In short, the economy does not witness much
growth under the leftist government. Right wing believes social inequality is inevitable. They believe that there will always be some
rich people and some poor people in society. The right believes giving free stuff and free
money under government subsidies does not help the poor. It makes poor people lazy and they remain
poor. The right believes in providing opportunities
to the poor rather than providing them with free stuff. Right wing government believes that the government
should have limited control over the lives of people and businesses. They promote personal freedom and the free
market economy. Their goal is to impose less rules on people. Right wing follows religious and traditional
values and they oppose open borders and immigration. Now what is the economics of the right wing
Economically right wing follows the classical approach. Right wing decreases regulations on businesses,
which results in more innovation. The right-wing promotes free market where
the government does not interfere much. They decrease the taxes, therefore, people
save more money and as a result, people spend more money on shopping and services, which
helps businesses in generating more revenue. That is why the economy thrives and sees growth
under the right-wing government. When America was under the leftist Democratic
Party and Barack Obama was the president. American economy did not witness much growth
but after Donald Trump came to the power American economy saw good growth. In our modern politics – Parties on the
left include labor, the greens, Democratic Party and all socialist and communist parties. While those on the right include the Republicans,
conservatives, the UK Independence party and the BJP of India. There is also one center ground where parties
like liberal democrats lie. These parties at the center hold the views
from both the right and the left.

Yanis Varoufakis on Julian Assange and the Political Economy & future of Europe


[musique] [musique] Bienvenu sur “The Source” un programme
dédié à donner de la voix aux lanceurs d’alerte, aux anciens initiés, et experts politiques. Mon nom est Zain Raza et aujourd’hui,
avec nous, un auteur à succès, ancien ministre des
finances grecque et co-fondateur de the Democracy in Europe Movement 2025 Yanis Varoufakis. Yanis, merci de nous rejoindre.
Avec plaisir! Avant que je ne commence à développer,
les problème sociologique et économique touchant
à l’Europe, je voudrais parler de Julian Assange, qui fût forcer de chercher refuge à l’ambassade de l’équateur à Londres. depuis 2012 et jusqu’à récemment il n’était accusé de rien. Mais maintenant ils peuvent resserrer les restrictions qui l’entourent. Il y a des informations, que le gouvernement US se prépare à le poursuivre en justice. Quel précédent cela peut il établir pour
la presse et ce que cela signifie pour sa liberté? Bien, ils ont Julian, donc ils ont vous avoir, moi, tous. C’est une lutte évidente pour la liberté de la
presse et pour les droits des citoyens de savoir quel gouvernement fait quoi derrière leurs dos et supposément en leurs noms. Julian ne fut jamais poursuivi pour tous ce que son nom charrie à travers la boue de l’affaire suédoise. Les progressistes aussi furent incités à croire qu’il cherchait à fuir la justice suédoise pour l’affaire de viol et chaque fois que ses supporters pointaient le fait que Julian ne voudrait rien de plus que de faire face à ses
accusatrices en Suède, mais la seule raison pour
laquelle il ne sort pas de l’ambassade de l’Équateur tient à sa connaissance d’un appareil de sécurité secret prêt à lui sauter dessus depuis les USA. Simplement, parce qu’il embarrassa ces structure sécuritaire en révélant les informations que nous connaissons et
cherissons sur les massacres en Irak, en Afghanistan, les papiers de la CIA de 2017. Les progressiste même furent incités à croire, ou dire
“Oh! allez. Il n’y a rien c’est de la paranoïa” Il essaye simplement d’éviter les accusations en Suède. Maintenant, nous savons grâce à un
accident, un ratage au USA, les autorités ont, en faite, publié les charge émises contre lui et qui sont effectivement des accusations d’espionnage, ce qui
signifie que si Julian sort de l’ambassade
équatorienne il serait arrêté par la police anglaise et extradé aux USA, et nous n’entendrons plus jamais parler de lui. Ce serait comme pour C. Manning, il disparaîtrait dans une sorte de
Guantanamo où même ses avocats n’auront pas d’information sur ce qu’on lui reproche
et cela afin de s’assurer que les gens comme vous, moi, notre audience et tous les autres n’aient aucun accès aux sordides secrets de nos appareils de sécurités, supposément en notre nom.
Regardons en Europe. En Allemagne, les centres s’effondrent, comme on peut
le voire au niveau des élections régionales et
fédérales L’aire “Mutti” ou A. Merkel touche à sa fin. Beaucoup disent désormais. Le
Brexit, plein de reculades et de drama, touche aussi à sa fin. Certain disent que cela peut encore durer
longtemps. L’opposition de l’UE sur le budget italien s’accentue, donc avant que le problème était à la périphérie et il semblerait que l’instabilité atteigne le centre. Pourriez-vous commenter sur ce développement, est-ce que tout est dut aux migrations et aux réfugiés ou bien, est-ce plus profond qui serait en marche, ici ?
Cela n’a rien à voire avec les migrations, rien à voire les réfugiés. Notre génération à un devoir
vis-à-vis d’elle même, pour saisir ce qui arrive, et ce qui arrive à notre génération. C’est en même temps simple et complexe. L’histoire simple la voilà : 2008 fut notre 1929. Comme à l’époque tout a commencé avec Wall street, qui est toujours le centre du tremblement de terre du capitalisme. Quand le capitalisme atteint un niveau d’insoutenabilité, passé un certain point, il s’effondre à Wall Street. Ce qui arriva en
1929. C’est ce qui est arrivé en 2008. L’idiot d’establishment, qui devait gérer le capitalisme globalisé, pour le
dire autrement, la foule de Davos fut pris de court et n’avait aucune idée, même de ce qui advenait. ils optèrent donc pour des politiques autoritaire d’un socialisme pour la finance et l’austérité pour les pauvres. Ils essayèrent de garder le
couvercle sur la crise, qui était hors de contrôle et de compréhension, tout comme en 1920-30. Le centre ne teint pas comme à cette époque. Il y eu une tentative cynique pour faire reposer le coût de la crise sur les épaules des plus faibles membres de la société et le résultat en fut le fascisme. Ce qui arrive ici : Brexit, la fin de
l’état de grâce pour A. Merkel, le moment fasciste de M. Salvini en Italie ou Orban en Hongrie. Le fait que les principaux
parties du centre-droit ou centre-gauche d’Europe s’effondrent, tout cela est le résultat, le contre coût de notre 1930. Il est essentiel pour nous démocrates, progressistes et c’est ce que DIEM25 essai de faire en Europe, de s’unir au delà des différentes nation, et d’oublier les anciens systèmes politiques pour faire une nouvelle politique qui confronte à la fois l’appareil de classe dirigeante déliquescente et le retour des fascistes, nationaliste et xénophobes. C’est une lutte complexe mais c’est le devoir de notre génération.
Depuis 2017, de nombreux mouvements
émergent. Pourtant, quand je les observe ou que je
fait des recherches sur eux, je remarque qu’il n’y a pas de proposition économique concrète pour le
contexte historique… Qu’est qui fait que DIEM25 un cas différent des autres mouvement et combien il est important pour la jeune génération de connaître quelque
base d’économie. La différence fondamentale entre ce que fait DIEM25 et les autre progressistes ainsi que les bons mouvements du passé, c’est que les autres commencent par se
rassembler autour de la table, dans les parcs ou dans la rue tous ceux unis par un même sentiment d’urgence de changer le
monde mais sans programme sur la manière de le faire. DIEM25 fait le pari inverse. Nous avons fait notre inauguration, comme vous le savez à Berlin en fev 2016, nous avons passé deux ans à répondre à la question : Comme peut ont régler, gérer les chose différemment. Que fait-on de la dette privée, et celle publique, que fait-on à propos de la pauvreté,
comment fiance-t-on un programme anti-pauvreté, et
comment faire avec les brevets, sur les retour d’investissements, le revenu universel
citoyen, Comment faire sur la question d’un travail
garanti, qui permettrait au gens de rester dans
leurs régions, pour qu’ils ne migrent pas soit à l’intérieur de leur pays soit à internationale, et nous avons aboutit au New Deal Européen, c’est notre programme. Une fois les réponses trouvé, et nous
sommes convaincus par notre programme, alors nous nous sommes étendu pour créer une
aile électorale partout, comme ici en Allemagne, aujourd’hui avec pour but de faire sortir ce programme dans la rue, dans les parcs, dans les salles de réunions C’est une différence importante, et j’ai
peur que, pour répondre à votre question, sur la raison qui devrait pousser les jeunes à
apprendre de l’économie, je leur dirai l’économie c’est chiant, c’est nul mais c’est le langage de la politique, de ses négociation et de ses réalisation,
or chacun d’entre nous doit comprendre les bases nécessaire à sa participation à la lutte politique, afin de se rendre
effectifs. Vous avez mentionnez le dividende universel citoyen, certain l’entendre comme un revenu universel. Je parle de sa substance, les gens ont tendance à croire que c’est une idée de gauche, mais vous
dites qu’elle implique des valeurs libérales, pourriez-vous développer cette idée? C’est le type d’idée qui transcende les clivage politique même la famille de l’ultra-droite libertarienne la supporte car ils y voient une alternative à l’État providence. Pour DIEM25 ce n’est pas un alternative, à un système social, mais plutôt quelque chose de séparé et essentiellement
complémentaire. Pour le dire avec des mots simples, nous ne sommes pas pour le financer par des impôts, car nous croyons que l’un des principaux problème de notre temps celui de la robotique, de l’automatisation
et des plateformes capitalistes, comme Airbnb, ou de
l’uberisation, le vrai problème est que nous avons des multinationales qui possèdent
l’ensemble du marché, et leur capital augmente grâce à vous et moi, chaque fois que nous recherchons sur Google, nous contribuons au capital de Google. Mais la société, vous
et moi, n’en profite pas de ce capital, les profits de ces de ces entreprise son accaparés par les actionnaires de Google. Nos propositions challenge donc les fondations du capitalisme, celui des multinationales à l’air de l’automatisation et ce que nous disons c’est qu’une par des actifs de ces entreprises doit être confisquée et mis ensemble dans un fond pour la société dont les dividendes financeraient ce dividende universel, car chacun participent à la richesse de ces personnes et même de leur point de vue, en fin de compte, si l’on ne fait rien, l’extrême concentration des richesse dans les mains de ces multi- nationales va une division profonde entre d’un côté leur capacité de production d’objets, de
services, qu’importe, et notre capacité à les payer.
En un sens, nous sauvons les entreprise contre elles, celle comme Google. Revenons sur la politique européenne, les ministres des finances
allemand et français ont récemment proposé une avancée pour le budget de l’Eurozone qui devrait permettre des choses telles qu’une assistance financière rapide, par temps de crise, assistance sur les investissements, et réformes
structurelles et ce budget de l’Eurozone serait une part d’un plus grand budget de l’UE.
Est-ce ce dont l’Europe à besoin et ce que le New Deal européen défend? C’est comme réarranger les chaise sur le Titanic plutôt que de le détourner de l’iceberg, ils ajoutent l’insulte à la plaie. Nous avons besoin d’un budget de la
zone-euro, mais il ne propose pas cela du tout, ils proposent… c’est typique de l’Union européenne, ils proclament
quelque chose afin de ne pas avoir à le faire, en pratique. Ils proclament, souvenez-vous, en 2012, une union bancaire. Normalement
nous avons en Europe, une union bancaire, mais nous n’en avons pas ici. Nous avons quelque chose qui en porte le nom, afin de ne pas en avoir une effective. Encore aujourd’hui si une banque italienne s’effondre, c’est au gouvernement italien de s’en occuper. Cela n’est pas une union bancaire! Avoir une union bancaire avec des systèmes bancaires nationaux est un affront à la
logique. De même que avoir une monnaie commune sans budget pour la zone-euro est un affront à la logique. Alors, que font-ils? Ils clament que nous avons une union
bancaire afin de ne pas avoir à la créer. ils clament que nous allons avoir un budget de la zone
euro, mais si vous regardez les détails que proposent-ils? ils proposent d’integrer au budget de l’union européenne une ligne de crédit pour permettre aux
États d’emprunter de l’argent, mais ils doivent
rembourser lorsque la situation va, soit disant, mieux. Cela n’a rien à
voire avec un budget de la zone euro. Vous savez ce que c’est? C’est la troïka, celle de la Grèce sous stéroïdes. Un budget, fédéral un budget de la zone euro devrait être financer par une source commune et certaine. Une obligation commune… Donc, à moins d’avoir une capacité
d’emprunt au niveau fédéral, il n’y a pas de gouvernement fédéral, à moins d’avoir la possibilité de lever des taxes au
niveau fédéral, il n’y a pas de budget fédéral. Ce n’est donc pas une zone euro. Et, aussi, le budget de la zone euro dont ils parlent, elle propose effectivement des prêts minuscules qui viennent avec des restrictions,
l’austérité en pièce jointe, de l’un à l’autre, minuscule Ce budget va être intégré à ce lui de l’UE, ce qui représente 1%. Pourtant, un budget fédéral s’il veut être macroéconomiquement signifiant, il faut qu’il représente au
moins 20% du PIB. Oui! 20% du PIB. Alors que ce ne sera qu’une fraction de 1%… Ils tirent sur la corde, je veux dire, vous savez, comme citoyen nous avons le devoir de regarder ces annonces, celle du ministre
des finances français ou allemande, et d’en rire ensemble, très fort. Un autre proposition faite par l’union européenne, celle d’une armée
commune. Ils parlent d’augmenter les dépenses en cyber sécurité, créer un drone qui servirait l’union européenne. C’est une manière de réanimer le capitalisme par des
l’investissements militaro-industriels, mais est-ce une bonne idée au regard des aventure de l’OTAN, ou comment évaluer la situation. S’il on veut booster le capitalisme
européen la chose la plus évidente à faire est d’investir dans les énergies vertes, afin d’obtenir une énergie renouvelable partout en Europe, et nous rendre indépendant de Gazprom et M. Poutin. Cela marcherait très bien, mais à la place, nous parlons de créer une nouvelle armée en Europe ce qui est curieux, et même perturbant, car imaginons que nous faisons une armée européenne. Disons que nous avons une armée forte d’une million
d’européens armés jusqu’au dent. On va en faire quoi? Qui va décider de l’envoyer cette armée sur un champ de bataille? Quel gouvernement, le gouvernement allemand? M. Juncker? Avec quelle légitimité? Il n’a rien de plus dangereux que d’envoyer une armé pour se battre et il n’y a rien qui exige et qui suppose plus de légitimité démocratique que cette décision d’envoyer des hommes
et des femmes mourir et donner la mort. L’idée d’une armée européenne aura du sens une fois que nous aurons un gouvernement, mais
cela suppose une fédération. Créer cette armée sans constitution démocratique fédérale, revient à créer une armée hors la loi ce qui serait néfaste pour les intérêts de la planète. Combien de temps reste-t-il avant que l’UE ne s’effondre et que peuvent les individus, spécialement la jeunesse, faire offline et online pour éviter cette effondrement? Il n’y a pas le temps, l’Europe est à un avancé de désintégration et je ne pense pas uniquement au Brexit. Ce n’est qu’un exemple, un exemple parlant. La manière dont les force centrifuge écartèlent actuellement L’Europe…. Il suffit de regarder le gouvernement italien, celui de Hongrie, ou de la Pologne. Que se passe-t-il en Allemagne ? Il y a la CSU à Munich, en Bavière, il y a des élément au sein de la CDU, il y a un SPD en PLS, la FDP qui prône des politiques qui vont de fait détruire la zone euro au nom de la rectitude. L’ensemble de l’Union européenne est désormais écartelée. Nous n’avons pas le temps. N’aillant pas agit hier, il va falloir que nous agissions aujourd’hui! Vous vous présentez aux élections au nom de DIEM25 en Allemagne; pourquoi ce pays et aussi développez votre vision. DIEM est née en février 2016 à Berlin, ce n’était par hasard. Comme nous l’avons dit lors de l’inauguration à la Volksbühne, rien de bien ne peut arriver en Europe à moins que cela ne commence en Allemagne. Son économie est la plus puissante
d’Europe, les allemands sont un peuple dévouer à
l’Europe très largement, même si cela diminue à cause des erreurs de l’establishment. C’est le champs de bataille de l’Europe. Ce n’est pas l’Italie, ni la Grèce ou le Portugal DIEM25 va se battre au Portugal, en Italie, en Grèce, en France, en Irlande, partout. Mais ici, c’est le champs de bataille et ma candidature pour le parlement européen en Allemagne symbolise la fin du mythe d’une division Nord/Sud, qu’il y aurait un clash entre l’Europe du Nord et du Sud. Notre détermination à démontrer aux allemands, aux grecques, aux français que le vrai clash est entre progressiste et autoritaire, partout, et avant ou à moins de changer l’humeur en Allemagne l’humeur ne changera nul part en EUrope. Yanis Varoufakis, Auteur de Best-seller, activiste, et cofondateur de Democracy in Europe Mouvement in 2025 merci beaucoup pour votre temps. Merci à vous. Merci à vous aussi de nous avoir
rejoint aujourd’hui. N’oubliez pas de vous abonner à notre chaîne Youtube et de donner car sinon nous ne serrons pas capable de produire des analyse indépendantes et à but non lucratifs. Mon nom est Zain Raza,
à la prochaine. [Music]

#82 WHATS A BREXIT?? – Posh Peter’s Politics Episode 3. BREXIT [ Unscripted Political Comedy ]


[Peter] Hello everyone. Yes yes it’s me Posh Peter [Peter] and welcome to… Posh Peter’s Politics. [Peter] Yes yes yes yes. [Peter] And today on this episode [Peter] we’re going to have a special discussion [Peter] about Brexit. Yes yes yes [Peter] With my special guest… [Peter] Boris Johnson. Yes how exciting [Peter] Oh
[Fred] Oh Hi Peter [Peter] Where’s Boris Johnson? [Fred] Oh yes er sorry. I’m afraid he couldn’t make it [Fred] and they called me in at the last minute [Fred] But I’m here and I’m so excited. [Fred] Hello everyone! I’m Freddy! Hi Peter [Fred] I’m so excited.
I’ve never been on a talk show before. [Fred] This is so good. Oh my god. [Fred] I’m glad that Boris Johnson couldn’t come. [Fred] Yes now I get to be on here instead. [Peter] Right ok. Well… [Fred] Yes they told me all
about what we’re going to talk about [Fred] It sounds really exciting. Yay [Peter] Oh oh oh ok. Ok that’s good then. [Fred] Yes yes yes
[Peter] So what is your opinion on Brexit then? [Fred] Well breakfast is my favourite meal of the day. [Peter] Breakfast?
[Fred] I love breakfast so much. [Fred] My favourite is bacon with eggs [Fred] And sometimes with toast as well. [Fred] Ooh Ooh
and yes and I really like pancakes and cheerios… [Fred] And Lucky Charms. When I want cereal… [Fred] I always
have Lucky Charms with the little marshmallows. [Fred] Num num num num. Oh and waffles. [Fred] Waffles with syrup [Fred] oh and pancakes with bacon and maple syrup. [Fred] Oh my god. They’re my favourite as well. [Fred] Oh I really
think breakfast is my favourite meal of the day. [Fred] What do you think about breakfast? [Peter] No no not breakfast. Brexit! [Fred] Oh is that a bit like brunch? [Fred] Sort of later but you know [Fred] You have breakfast but not at breakfast time. [Peter] Hang on. Let me ask you in another way. [Fred] Yes?
[Peter] Do you like a hard Brexit or a soft Brexit? [Fred] Ooh. I like a soft boiled Brexit. [Fred] Yes with soldiers for dipping. [Peter] No!
[Fred] Mmm. Yum yum yum yum yum [Fred] Yes my Daddy always makes me a [Fred] soft boiled Brexit in the morning. [Peter] No no. BREXIT. Not breakfast. [Fred] Yes Brexit. Not breakfast. [Fred] Yes he makes me a soft boiled Brexit. [Peter] No no no!
We’re talking about politics here not food. [Fred] Oh no. I’m afraid I’m not allowed that no. [Fred] My Daddy says I’m not allowed. [Fred] Because I have
hay fever you see and it makes me sneeze. [Peter] No no. Not pollen. Politics. [Fred] Pollentics? I don’t know what that is. [Peter] Oh oh…
[Fred] I think I might be allergic though. [Fred] Yeah my Daddy says I’m allergic to lots of things. [Peter] No no no!
[Fred] But once he told me I was allergic to sunshine [Fred] but that’s not true. I checked [Peter] No no no no. [Peter] Right I’m
going to have to explain to you what Brexit is. [Fred] Ok
[Peter] So basically Britain as a country in 2016… [Peter] decided to leave Brussels and leave Europe [Fred] What? But why? I like Brussels [Peter] You like Brussels? [Fred] Yes I love them. [Fred] Yes we
had them at Christmas. They’re delicious. [Peter] No!
[Fred] Yes brussel sprouts. They’re really nice [Fred] We had brussel sprouts with bacon [Fred] and then we had them with our roast dinner. [Peter] Oh for god sake…
[Fred] They were so delicious. [Fred] So we are talking about food. [Fred] We’re just talking about dinner. Oh! [Peter] No!
[Fred] Ok. No don’t worry. [Fred] We make brussel sprouts in this country. [Fred] So we don’t have to worry if we leave Europe… [Fred] because we can make more Brussels. [Peter] No no no no. Brussels is a… [Fred] Yes! Yes! We farm them here. [Fred] I’ve seen it on the discovery channel. [Peter] No… Yes about brussel sprouts [Peter] but that’s
not what I’m talking about again. No no [Peter] Brussels is a city in Belgium in Europe [Fred] No no no no. I’m pretty sure about this. [Fred] Brussels is a type of vegetable. [Fred] Yeah. I
know because my Daddy makes me eat them [Fred] because he says they’re good for me. [Fred] And I
really like them but he thinks they’re disgusting [Fred] but I think they’re great. Yum yum yum [Peter] Oh for goodness sake. No no no. Look… [Fred] Why don’t you like Brussels? [Fred] They’re so delicious [Peter] No! I’m not talking about food. [Peter] We’re talking about politics here. [Fred] I’m so confused. [Peter] Look… I’ll try and explain to you why… [Peter] we decided to leave Brussels and Europe [Fred] I don’t
see why you would. They’re so delicous [Peter] Right… So we decided to leave Brussels… [Peter] For a number of reasons [Peter] And the main reason was immigration. [Peter] Yes yes yes. So we wanted to stop… [Peter] immigrants from coming into our country [Fred] No I think you’ve got mistaken again. [Fred] I think you mean you want to stop ignorants [Fred] But you sound very ignorant. [Fred] If you’re saying you don’t want people… [Fred] coming to our country… [Fred] that sounds very ignorant to me [Fred] But I
agree. Stopping ignorant people like you… [Fred] Is a very good idea. [Peter] No!
[Fred] It sounds like a very ignorant persepctive [Fred] If you
want to stop people from coming to our country… [Fred] Then you have no idea of the potential of… [Fred] Wealth of knowledge and skills [Fred] and
things like that that you’re potentially turning away [Peter] But no… [Peter] There
are plenty of unskilled people as well you know [Fred] But do you know that a large portion of our… [Fred] National Health Service is made [Fred] up by foreign workers [Peter] But… [Fred] Yes
so what would happen to our health system [Fred] Which is already suffering [Fred] due to lack of funding and other issues [Fred] If we then take away all of the workers [Peter] Well… [Fred] I think it sounds like you would like [Fred] To have your cake and eat it too. [Peter] No…
[Fred] Yes [Peter] No [Fred] I think I’m starting to understand yes. [Fred] I can see why there needs to be a debate [Fred] It sounds like there needs to be a debate [Fred] To stop people like you. [Peter] No! Look. Look. [Peter] We need to stop immigrants coming into… [Peter] our
country because we’re losing our identity… [Peter] as Britain. Yes yes yes [Peter] Yes we’re losing the British identity. [Fred] Oh right. Yes that sounds really good… [Fred] You mean you want to retain the identity… [Fred] Of an empire building, like world conquering… [Fred] identity
[Peter] Yes that sounds great [Fred] Where we have bad teeth [Fred] And we like waiting in queues. [Fred] And
yeah so I don’t really think we really want… [Fred] Oh and of course. Hunting foxes [Fred] And cruelty to animals and racing them. [Fred] And doing all sorts… [Fred] Yeah
that’s a really great history to hold on to. [Fred] I think a fresh start would be actually [Fred] Quite a good idea don’t you? [Peter] Well… [Peter] Well some people like the old values. [Fred] Yes the traditionalists. [Fred] The people who can’t let go. [Fred] Yes
the people who are dragging the rest of us down [Fred] The people who are pushing forward [Fred] And being modern and interesting [Fred] And accepting and kind [Fred] The people who have a new world order [Fred] And a new perspective [Fred] And
it’s people like you that are holding us back [Fred] You are the anchor to our ships [Fred] You are the dirt, the dust and the crust… [Peter] No!
[Fred] On the sails. Yes [Fred] You. Yes. [Peter] This is absolutely ridiculous. [Fred] Yes
[Peter] Who booked this guest on? [Fred] Yes. Don’t listen to him. Don’t listen to him. [Fred] Go now. Go and find the real facts [Peter] No! Don’t listen to him [Fred] Find out for yourself and find out the truth. [Peter] No!
[Fred] Yes [Peter] This is absolutely ridiculous [Fred] Don’t listen to bigots like this. [Fred] These people do not have [Fred] your best interests at heart. Yes [Peter] I’m leaving. I’m not listening to you anymore [Peter] I don’t know who booked this guest [Peter] But this is ridiculous [Peter] I am going to my trailer. [Fred] Right anyway so [Fred] my favourite thing for breakfast is bacon [Fred] Yes. Do you like bacon? [Fred] I love bacon. [Fred] I like bacon most when it’s smoked. [Fred] And I also like it when it’s really crispy [Fred] And I like the fact that [Fred] You can have bacon hot [Fred] And you can have it cold [Fred] Sometimes I like to have… [Fred] bacon in a sandwich the next day [Fred] But
other times I like to have bacon on it’s own [Fred] It’s really really good. [Fred] Do you like bacon? [Fred] What’s your favourite kind? [Fred] Do you like big bacon? [Fred] Or small bacon? [Fred] Or rashers of bacon? [Fred] Or do you like other types of bacon? [Fred] Do you like it smoked? [Fred] Or do you like it unsmoked? [Fred] Do you like it… [Fred] Well I don’t know [Fred] I’ve run out of questions. [Fred] This is reallty hard being a talk show host [Fred] Hello? Hello? Help [Fred] What do I do? How do I make it stop? [Fred] Uh. Eggs? Oh I like eggs. [Fred] Um help! [Fred] Er boiled eggs? Do you like boiled eggs? [Fred] I like boiled eggs. [Fred] I like them with soldiers [Fred] Hello. Help. How do I make it stop? [Fred] Hello! [Fred] Hello! [Fred] Oh! [Fred] Bye!

🔴 Brexit – Will the UK Leave the EU? (w/ Nigel Farage) | Real Vision Clasics


Mr. Frosh, it’s a pleasure to have you with us again So many people in America and around the world, especially in the states have gotten to know you through Videos and clips on the Fox and all the different networks But what I love about the real vision long program is its really getting to know? You having our investors globally getting to know a person like yourself in a deeper more personal format? just bring us back to Your days and many people don’t understand the things about your past and what the evolution of your ideas So your former years ears in finance. For example, yeah. All right, my first job first September 1982 working for Drexel Burnham Lambert, which and Drexel had just bought An old firm of london metal exchange brokers in london. That was my first job. So I spent five years working At Drexel I then spent five or six years at Credit Lyonnais Which then was a state-owned? French bank it wasn’t for me and there was a parting of the ways With that one and then I spent nine years working for FK that leaves chicago-based Tricia Absolutely, and that was a that was a great place to work it sort of it ended badly Yeah for them, and it was a great place to work. So most of my life Most my business life was involved with battle, you know base metals copper aluminium as we say aluminium as you say, yeah, you know nickel Tim zing LED But also I did a family currency trading as well during those years, so I spent some time As a broker but also some time as a market maker. So so yeah, I mean my life was the City, my life was financial markets. I loved it but politics kind of took over. How did you make that switch? I mean, it’s so hard this you you’re twenty thousand feet deep in finance. Yeah, you’re in your 20s 30s. Yeah and You know first of all What inspired you to make that risk? Because one of things that I look at is the risk of taking that jump to that next field Well, it is a big risk because I mean the truth of it is, you know, the public think that politicians are incredibly well-paid They’re not You never even know so actually for me doing it. There was a huge financial hit but it kind of occurred because in about 86 87 We had something developed called the single European market and the idea was that across the whole of Europe There would be exactly the same rules the same regulations the creation of an economic isotopic plane and that somehow this would be good for business and I thought well actually as a trader I Don’t want things to be the same. I like differences. I like competition I think that individual government should be able to set their own tax levels their own Employment levels so as a free markets here. I was instinctively Concerned about it. But also now when the phone rang, you know, it could easily be Frankfurt or Paris, but probably it’s more likely to be Santiago or Singapore It was a global business. Yeah, so I I from an economic perspective. I thought what are we doing? getting ourselves so closely tied to the European economic model given the fact as a big world out there and then politically I Began to realize in the early nineties that the common market as we called It was actually about the creation of a new state. They wanted to build the United States of Europe They just didn’t want to tell anybody about what is the common market to the average viewer me? Well, the common market was the concept basically of a free trade zone. Well, you don’t have quota Well, you don’t have tariffs and that’s how the European project was sold to my parents generation They say you know, what’s not to like, you know free trade zone No, just so leniently. Absolutely But it was clear but the nineties he was becoming so much more and for me the the the biggest moment of a lot Was October 1990? quarter past hoppers 5:00 in the pub Opposite the London Metal Exchange, which is what traders tend to to say and somebody came in and said we’ve just joined the Exchange Rate Mechanism and the exchange rate mechanism was a means of Pegging sterling against the basket of European currencies, but of course the deutsche mark clearly being the heaviest by waiting And we were doing this Because the British government wanted us to join what became the euro And I remember that night saying this is cretinous. We’re making a huge mistake It won’t work and by 1992, you know We finished up with interest rates being double what they should have been record bankruptcies record house repossessions And I thought you know what? I was right about that And if I was right about that, maybe I’m right about other that it was it was me saying to myself. I don’t get this but seeing virtually every national newspaper virtually every employers Federation every trade union Every political party saying it was the right thing to do and there was I screaming that it wasn’t And that kind of inspired me I thought well, I forgot about it if I’ve got that right maybe I should give politics ago and you start the UKIP Yeah, the most lonely and I just picture this empty meadow with you out there and and and now this meadow has become a Field field filled the people. I mean what were your first steps to create the Union? What’s at the the United Kingdom independence movement for a party? Yeah party. Well, I mean it was it was I Began to because of the way I was feeling about This European project, you know, I began to write letters Myself to the national newspapers and start getting published and doing things like that and before long I you know I I discovered a group of people who felt very much the same mostly academics. They were mostly people from academia. Not from business I have to say that most of my friends family Business colleagues, I mean they just thought I’d gone nuts You know, I think they sort of thought I’d smoke something funny What was I doing lord shiva’s crusade, but I you know when you work in financial markets, you’ve got to be prepared to Admit you’re wrong often several times in one day And I’ve always been prepared to admit I’m wrong in life and yet somehow Get it right back to the early nineties I just knew this was the right thing to do and I just knew I had to do it I mean, is it a calling? I don’t quite know what it is, but I just believed but I wanted to do this and I believed I Kind knew that the gut instinct feelings I had about the European project about the loss of democracy about the loss of sovereignty I Somehow knew that at some point it would reach a wider audience. What I didn’t know was quite how long it would take me and If you think of the viewers of real vision and around the world, I’m watching us right now. What’s the one thing? That people don’t really understand about you Well, I think it’s very easy when you’re a figure that is against the establishment It’s quite easy given the tidal wave of abuse and criticism that you get For people to form an impression that somehow the things that I fought for Were extreme or hard right or you know? all these things that got said and and I guess I Don’t let much upset me because you couldn’t survive in this business if you see it But I think those that get the impression that somehow Because you want your sovereignty because you believe in sensible immigration controls that somehow this is some sort of extreme neo-fascist tendency That’s the one thing that probably just does actually upset me when people form that impression I mean, I was a member of the Conservative Party. That is my biggest sin they’re like really committee doesn’t at all and I was a big advocate of Thatcher of Reagan do I believe in capitalism I believe in free markets Nothing extreme about it. But this is what happens all through history you Get an establishment consensus forms around a status quo position and anybody that comes and attacks it whether it’s in science or business or politics is denigrated it as being mad and bad and What do you say to that middle class? Person in the UK runs a small business that has relationships throughout Europe and that they’re hard brexit You know would disrupt that family and family vision in the short haul. What do you say to that person? Well, I mean the first point to make is eat that doesn’t have to be the case Okay, you know I’ve been GATT the gap treaty has been around a very long time, you know article 24 of the cat treaty Means that we could go to The WTO. That’s the World Trade Organization. Yep in Geneva So the UK can go to the WTO and the EU would need to as well And we could leave on March 29th at 11 p.m. UK time and under Article 24 of GATT we would have a minimum period of two years During which we could negotiate a new trade agreement During that series a year kind of timeout period or an integration period basically for two years nothing would change yet we would continue on the current trading terms of that two-year period So it doesn’t have to be a hard landing brexit. There is actually a very sensible very very easy way out But even if we did leave with a bumpy landing and with tariffs That would be quite tough for lamp producers whiskey producers or Manufactured goods. It’ll make them was no difference. No tariffs on manufactured goods right two or three percent It’s less than the weekly currency move And so there’s a lot of nonsense talked about many things like that, but I would say this to them the word that has disappeared from our political narrative in the UK is competitive We’ve been so used Over the course of 40 years to harmonizing our regulations Homogenizing our regulations they I mean past your eyes the Arabic Oh it’s all become the same and actually breaking free of the European Club gives us a chance to Diverge over time and to be more competitive in terms of regulation in so I mean think of the City of London think of method to the Massive cost as a method to is this new it’s kind of like your version of dodd-frank and it’s like yes, that’s right That’s a financial regulation system that comes from the European you comes the European It impacts the banking system in London. It massively impacts the brokers dealers and traders in London. It doesn’t actually protect anybody It just makes London. It makes Europe a much more expensive place to do business You know I keep hearing this argument because of what Goldman Sachs a or JP Morgan says That all the city of London is in favor of the European Union, but it’s not really, you know The big might like it because they get a chance to write their own rulebook and it might hurt them a little bit But it has their competitors even more but we’ve seen over the last 10 years at least 18,000 jobs leaving Financial services in London going in insurance going to Bermuda hedge funds leaving going to Geneva Zurich, Singapore actually, you know, we’re making London a Difficult place to do business. I’ve got several friends of mine. Who and that’s not necessarily an independence movement created That was much more from mithy That’s your point if it’s one example of it, but I’ve got friends who now have set up businesses in in, New York It’s much easier now to do business in New York than it is to do it in London the truth of it is that both the French emerge Germans have never understood the Anglo-saxon market system that New York and London, in fact, they actually hate it They hates it and so I think being outside of that common rule book Phenomenal opportunity for London, which is after all a very international City Anyway, so I see I see a great future And anyway, they given the financial services is Britain’s biggest business shouldn’t we be in control of the rules? Not somebody else. So you’re spending more time in the United States. You’re on the speaking tour here. You’re working with financial institutions You’re more I think an advisor now to some US investors because of this movement. How is that working? And how in your relationship with the president? I mean clearly the president being a friend makes a big difference again because everyone wants that I wasn’t really like But yeah, I mean look all of business here particularly The finance business is fascinated. What’s gonna happen to the euro what’s gonna happen to the European project? And one of the reasons they want to hear from me and I you know, I speak a client breakfast or whatever. It may be One of the reason they want to hear from me is like what quite good form on this, you know? I’ve made some big calls that have turned out to be right. I mean brexit in front was a twin double You know that happened back in 2016 But also people need to understand that what’s going on here is there’s a giant battle going on here In politics across the entire western world, its globalism versus nationalism and Actually, the European Union is if you like the prototype for the globalists of the New World Order But I’m not being a conspiracy theorist here, but they want to create a new world order And if Hillary had won the presidency, you know She’d already talked on Wall Street about America becoming part of a hemispheric European single market. So people are People very keen to know what do I think is going to happen and I’m happy to tell them. Yeah well our bear traps report clients have mentioned the most impressive thing in the last year’s most people thought that your Politics would overrule your financial opinions, but in the last year we’ve seen you make some profound in December I mean you you really took the may Appeasement process to heart and you thought that this would play out in other words in an extended Way in other words you in other words more bullish for the past. Yeah I’ve been arguing as you say before Christmas I was talking here against my own political book But I was arguing that the fears the short-term fears that the currency markets and equity markets have of us leaving with no deal of us returning to it and that peaked around December 58 did it did and I was saying very publicly Actually in reality. I think what will happen is the camel get kicked down the road I don’t think Parliament’s got the heart or the will at this moment in time To deliver the brexit that people voted for so yeah I’ve been arguing since Christmas that extension is the most likely thing and that actually the short term effect on the markets is Mildly bullish for the both the power and you can’t go juice and you’ve had the Corbin risk for the pound and for the UK Credit rating that seems to have gone. So I think the Corbin risk peaked in June July June last year Coal, boom was running at about 40% and let’s bring back. He’s the head of the Labour Party in the UK He is the hard left leader the most labor most hostile to bondholders and creditors potentially on the road Absolutely. I mean this is You know the Labour Party has it socialist roots Of course But this is by far the most left-wing leader the Labour Party’s ever had And indeed the whole party’s been taken over by hard left Activists and I I look sometimes of what’s happening to the Democrats In this country, I see slightly the same tendency beginning to occur So people were terrified that a Corbin government and there would mean basically capital flight Hmm like we had back in the nineteen seventies. I think what’s happened since June is His position is so extreme he has brought with him a group of people whose Hostility to the existence of Israel actually spills over into just plain outright anti-semitism And that’s something middle England doesn’t like mmm middle England decent people. They don’t wanna be associated with that kind of thing So you’ve now got a fragmentation of splinter? The nine Labour MPs so far have resigned from the past. Oh, no, it’s oh, this is a splinter within the Labour Party Yeah yet nine of them have left and They they’ve left for three reasons one the tinge of anti-semitism to That it’s so extreme now on the left that actually a sort of moderate socialist social democrat doesn’t feel comfortable and three Of course because of the European position and the ones that have left are the outright We must have a second referendum. We must operates it from happening. But either way Labour is the Labour vote is split down the middle, you know of the 12 million votes the Corbyn got timber 2017 general election 5 million of those had voted brexit the year before So you’ve got the Labour Party split on brexit and equally the Conservative Party split as well British politics can’t cope with brexit but the point is that splinter Has even though it’s any you know, just more than a handful of them He’s now in the polls down at 25 26 percent and I think the threat of a Corbin government has diminished Hugely, and that’s very good news for investors and good news for business So let’s talk about actionable cash for investors watching us over the next two months So February 27th, we have a parliamentary vote and then we have the EU summit You saw because that’s in early, March 25 snack in the mouth and then we have the parliamentary elections walk us through what investors watching us right now those catalysts and in the way The those kettles are going to swing market sentiment 27th of February is the next time the government will put they call it a neutral motion before the House of Commons, but basically they bring Parliament up to date with how the negotiations are going with those lovely people like Monsieur Barnea and mr Yonkers so miss meadows around Europe can it gets a flavour of the deal that she can yes together mrs Makings it’s back. The prices may goes to Europe and Beggs Before unelected bureaucrats and Brussels in ask for concessions. I just find the whole thing humiliating, but hey So whether on the 27th The anti brexit mp’s strike or whether they wait remains to be seen but there was an amendment the Cooper bowls amendment that didn’t pass in Parliament last time but what it basically says is that If No, Deal can be agreed Article 50 should be extended the cam should be kicked down the road. What does that mean for the market? Well, it said, it means no change It means that’s why I think we’re there’s a reserve alley and so there will be a little bit of a rally and that happens Although it won’t be a big one Because it was one thing businesses and investors do want is some certainty of where we’re going with there if you kick the can down The road for a year. Well, what’s to stop you kicking it down the road for another year. What’s to stop maybe? Momentum for a second referendum. So in that company’s CFO’s Treasurer’s can’t make those capital expenditure. Yeah decisions everywhere I go Larry, you know people in business say look whatever the deal is. Just give it to it. Just tell us you Know and then we can start to behave again. So that’s it. So that is a problem So 27th of February could be a big day 13th 14th of March will be massive in the UK Parliament because that’ll be the last big debate Before she goes off on the 21st of March to Brussels to the summit where you know the 28 Presidents and Plattsburgh, she’ll probably get through the final offer From the EU I would think so, but if she does get a final offer them That would any give us 7 days For parliamentary right now How does how is that connected? Don’t forget that after Parliament it deals with this the European Parliament has the final say So the final final vote is actually gonna be in Brussels or Strasbourg and I of course will be a part of that so for all these reasons You can see why Extension looks more and more likely the deal the deal that she’s negotiated is arguably From a political point of view even worse than EU membership, but at least with EU membership We could trigger article 50 and give an intention to leave With the withdrawal agreement we could be stuck in it in perpetuity So she’s not handled this at all. Well, I really want to understand the European elections. Yeah populous evolved a obviously The movement AFD in germany liga 5 star in Italy even Vox now in Spain. Yep. These are all Populist parties that have gone from as you’ve explained I saw you speak at an event of banking event where you said Liga and salvini were one to three percent of the vote 10 years ago where they explained that well that impact on The 30s now in the 30. Yeah, it’s remark. This is Italy Liga, you know, when do you think about Italian government? So what do they have? I think 51 governments in the first 50 years after World War two I mean, you know chaos is the norm in Italian politics and the governments come in and governments go this government this merger that has happened between Five star they were you know on the Left the Lea they’re on the right. Their approval ratings are up in the 60s Together. Yep together and it’s working And so this would be like an America a Bernie Sanders party and a Trump party together in many ways It would be yeah in many ways when it’s just fascinating to him Americans I think but it’s working they They’re clearly on a collision course Because you know one group wants to spend one group wants to cut taxes the house That’s different sustainable funny that well, the coalition forces compromised obviously, but you know They presented a budget their annual budget With a deficit running at about 2.4 percent and all right. I know Some of the future projections were a little bit optimistic For great, but it wasn’t by any means an outrageous budget particularly given the French after yeah The expectations were I think four or five percent, right? That’s right, and they came in with two point four I thought it was relatively responsible and yet The European Commission, you know and I repeat the point Men and women who we can’t vote for men and women here. We can’t remove people who have power without accountability rejected The Italian budget and made them cut it and I think these European elections particularly our effectively gonna be a virility test of Italian political passes against that amount of Brussels the EU Parliament and Net net net a larger percentage of populace will be in there look, you know, I mean when I was first elected to the European Parliament in in 1999 I mean I was the only Secessionist in the place. I Was I was one of the 600 the something. Hey, you know I was the only person really there Saying we shouldn’t be part of this. It’s gonna be very different. I think was gonna be a big move. I would I would guess that We’re gonna finish up with I would think 25 percent of the Parliament may be near a 30 will be um, ep’s with a pretty robustly skeptical attitude Towards the way the European Union works doesn’t mean there’ll be outright secessionist, but it means they will be you’re a critical in many many ways and kind of what I think we’re gonna see happening is I think the discipline that keeps the eurozone together You know and that combination of ECB At times IMF and set a European Commission that discipline that tells countries what they must have must not do That’s gonna fragment that’s gonna start very soon now, so you had miss Angela Merkel. Yeah incredible leader through obviously 2010-11 through the last eight nine. Yeah, I take a decade almost Yeah, she was the glue of Europe and what you’re describing is a more fragmented power base throughout Europe Well, she’s going yeah, she’s gone. She’s going Amazing isn’t it, you know glittering political career ruined by one mistake Yep, that one phrase let them come as many they want to come Carmen. It’s ruined immigration so it’s ruined so a lot of people here in the state’s think that if if she had taken if the Europe had handled this Immigration issue over say a decade and didn’t try to jam it down. Everyone’s throat is that is that your argument is that that’s what well, I think that if you if you bring in You know huge numbers of people in a very short space of time Nearly all of whom are young males? Aged between 20 and 30 and who come from countries where women aren’t even second-class citizens, you know Don’t be surprised that they’re a huge huge cultural uproar Going on in German cities and elsewhere say it was a huge huge mistake that she made either way if you think back to 2008 and on it was actually Merkel’s leadership in many ways that kept the eurozone functioning and kept the whole thing working her political authority the sheer weight of Germany as an economic power kept the whole show on the road. She’s on the way out very unlikely There she’s gonna be replaced by anybody with that level of stature that she has this is important. So you think of the relationship between Germany and think of shoval the former finance minister you’ve had this group of people that were very Hard on austerity, you know really forcing the austerity into the periphery which Italy Spain Portugal Could we see a left shift there where they’re actually more Supportive of deficit spending in the South could that somehow be a positive coming out of Germany? Well as disaster major, they might but it won’t be enough the Greeks had their little mini rebellion No, they put mr. Tsipras in power They had the rather colorful Finance Minister mr. Varoufakis For a bit but in the end when it came to the standoff Between the Greek government and the European institutions the Greeks blinked and the Greeks have now just given up basically Italy’s a very different kettle of fish. I I Think what you’re beginning to see with salvini is a series of tests of will that are going on between him and the European institutions And at some points now going after the ECB. Oh absolutely books apps Absent will a proper agreement for that? but Yeah, and I said say what I see I see discipline breaking down within the eurozone. I think it becomes much harder For the ECB the commissioner and Germany to limit What governments borrow and what they spend? So it’d be much harder for the EU to enforce my financial discipline much Hong Soo So you have credit default swaps on at an Italian? Sovereign bond yet. It had gone up dramatically as of the famous Memorial Day weekend. Yeah God bless Brevan Howard. They got it, right? Yeah But now what’s interesting is that even as markets have rallied here in the United States? You still have those current default swaps that did that which is actually a bet on default the cost of protection It’s still very very elevated among Italy and the banks so You’re talking about 1.8 trillion of near term debt maturities in Italy. So these are bonds that are coming do That at the same time they’re running the deficits and they’re having this confrontation. We’re talking about near term debt near term Paper coming due in the next 3-4 years, maybe five. So you’re near term debt maturities are extremely high 1.8 trillion How do we get through this? What where does it break? Does it break sometime in the next 18 months? Well in the end, of course That’s the one thing that that’s the one thing that they have over salvini Is the worry that if they rebelled too much the whole system could go back. You know, that is the one thing that perhaps holds the Italians back from being too rebellious, but ultimately in the end this is about public will and We’ve seen it the brexit. I mean we were told in that referendum That’ll be voted to leave half a million jobs would go immediately growth would collapse House prices would collapse plagues of black locust would descend upon our farmlands and we still very brexit And youuuu you get to a point? where even if you tell the Italian electorate if you start to pursue a path Of basically looking alternatives to the euro, which is what we’re talking about. Really? That terrible things will happen to you. Well in the end people haven’t gotten a thing have nothing to lose And I think ultimately that’s where we’re going and financial markets have to deal with these different headlines So you’ll have the Finance Minister the EU? Mr Conti the EU kind of a relation preparation relationship person explain how these different headlines come out one comment says, okay they’re potentially Open to leave the European Union then a couple days later salvini has to come back and walk that back explain What’s really happening behind the scenes? Well, the confusion of course is that you’ve got this coalition of Labor and The 5-star but there’s also a prime minister mr. Conti and I was with him a couple of weeks ago And he is more of a he’s probably yes a you have a EU Prime Minister. You have an EU private idealist It’s just different but don’t doubt don’t doubt The changes the trends in public sentiment. I mean even in France Polling last week 40 percent of French want to leave the European Union now, I’m not predicting This whole thing is going to collapse in short order. What I am predicting is we’re gonna go through years of huge battles Going on between governments. What did they make their own sovereign decisions and central bankers And euro politicians trying to prevent them from doing it, but the trend is very very clear The trend is very very clear whether it’s on budget deficits Whether it’s on sharing Germany’s migrant quotas with the Hungarians and the polls of many countries like that You know what you’re actually saying is public opinion moving in completely the opposite direction to Brussels and here’s the interesting thing the growth of Euroskeptic movements or populist movements. I don’t like that word because it’s used in a pejorative sense But but the growth of all of this has happened during a period of relatively benign economics And that’s a very important part. Right? And this is the clue. This really is the populist rise with Mister. Mr. Draghi has fired four point seven trillion dollar absolute of Economic asset that’s not going to continue it So that four point seven trillion should have helped contain populism hasn’t done. It hasn’t done it So that program is coming very much to an end. So walk us through that so we have mr. Draghi Leaving this is mr. Everything It takes from June 2012, which was the big moment when he had fatal Markus reversed the positives ayah And he’s like I said, he’s a he’s accumulated Four point seven trillion of bonds and assets all kinds of even corporate debt. He owned some junk bonds as well Now you may not have a strong view here. But what are you hearing around? You know macron France the influence of the next head of the ECB Germany obviously as a heavy hand Mr. Weidman, I mean, where do you see this going? Because it’s all gonna come down in October This is a year of huge change, look we’ve got the European elections happening at the end of May We’ve got an entire new European Commission coming in in November so You know yonkers retiring is going off to a a bar in the sky somewhere or wherever he’s going to go And also big change at the ECB. So this is a massive year of change within the European institutions and It’s gonna be very interesting. You know, if if the ECB decides to be really hardcore in terms of policy And in terms of trying its utmost to maintain discipline Within the eurozone have that you have that 1.8 trillion of Italian bonds in the next three years. Yeah So you need an accommodative ECB? what I’m seeing and it’s fascinating is Despite the uprising that we’re seeing amongst public opinion new political parties The way Brussels is responding to this is actually to Tran centralize even more quickly so these decisions as to who gets put in as the next Commission president, you know what direction the ECB is going to take I Personally think that they will not be very accommodating. They will try They will try to maintain discipline It’s rather like the schoolteacher, you know, if the kids they respect the schoolteacher the mall the schools He ‘tried shouts at them the worse they behave that’s almost what you’ve got here So I I think they’re gonna try and play very tough. I think they’re gonna go for I think Brussels will choose very centralizing people, you know quite Aryan People in economic terms and that will just keep the discontent going We’re heading four years of conflict in the eurozone and we’re also seeing of course and you know Economically some quite worrying science, you know industrial production figures a good for Germany for France, Italy in recession I Don’t see any prospect to be coming out of recession in the short term. So, you know, we’re now moving into negative a period of negative Economics and that’s why I think the whole populist movement In Italy you have the tax cuts ends the fiscal spending that they won. Does that get put forth? I mean has that that where does that stick is you you had salvini ran on tax cuts and a five-star ran on deficits When does that stimulus come into Italy? Where is that? I didn’t lay No, but as I said to you earlier there seem to be a popular government because there seem to be standing up against Brussels in the end Look in the end. This is this European project isn’t gonna be that Big difficulty and it’s tough enough for Britain to get out on brexit. The difficulty is How the countries leave the eurozone I’m a day somebody puts up a decent plan For how you leave? The eurozone is the day when the whole thing will change we’re not they like a two euro system Where you have a southern euro in a northern euro body, that would be more fair to the attendees very much That is very much the way That some of the thinkers inside Liga, you know that’s the direction of travel that they’re currently it’s not that they leave their two euros to a northern euro and a southern that’s Currently thinking and I know that within labor they’re having this conversation again Exactly how you implement it exactly how you do it. I don’t know but I mean Ultimately, I have to say this I I I know a lot of people have lost a lot of money being short of the year, right? Over the last decade and more but I think we have now reached the point where I am now pretty bearish on the euro It’s all yourself. Yeah, and I think Germany faces some big long-term problems I think we the massive changes in the car industry in particular Are gonna pose some real problems the German economy and years to come so we have these auto tariffs that are that the u.s Is hanging over you have the head of the a of the specialization, which is a great Trump trick, isn’t it? Gee I love tariffs drives the mad I mean you think of what percentage of German GDP comes from the auto Industry is very high And then you have so we have this plan that’s come from the Commerce Department’s been delivered to the White House. They’ve kept it very Secret so far it’s been leaked out that it will be more targeted tariffs versus a Shotgun, but in other words that may they may try to protect Tesla and electric vehicles because I mean he imagined this Tesla You’ve got 20,000 German engineers that are going to be producing electric vehicles. You’ve got 250 300 billion dollars of capital expenditures and investments from both wagon and BMW that’s coming into the electric vehicle space, but How does how does how does how do they come up? How do how do they do a deal here with Trump? because you’ve got macron and and the French agricultural Demands, right? So Trump would never go away so that’s how does Germany like who’s I think it’s Kissin Kissinger once said Years ago. He said the only problem with Europe is I never know who to call. Yeah, right like how does I know Kissinger said that and of course, you know, there were American administrations for years who actually encouraged The creation of a European political project and one of the reasons of course was there were half a million American troops You know during the Cold War helping maintain the peace in Europe at a massive cost to America But all of that all of that sixties and seventies thinking that came from the USA about Europe Ultimately proved to be wrong because how could you have one Foreign Minister for Europe? How can you have one finance minister for Europe when you’ve got these incredibly disparate? Not just economies but cultures. It doesn’t work. It just doesn’t well, how does the white house deal with this? Macron in France. That won’t give German the agricultural Concessions that they need and then the Germans you have this situation I think he’s got the more he wants them. Actually Trump’s got them terrified I mean, don’t forget You know six months ago when he when he first spoke about the iniquity as he sort of of the car trade Across the Atlantic between the EU and America, you know, and he talked about tariffs I mean within four or five days they bundled mr. Young car onto an aeroplane and sent him to the White House They are terrified of Trump. They’re terrified of this threat of tariffs and ultimately I think Yeah agriculture forget there’s gonna be no deal and I would call drew any card at all. So They don’t give on agriculture then what kid isn’t then? How can the EU and Germany offer Trump something that would satisfy Trump’s demands? That’s it Don’t forget these these standoffs could go on for a long time This doesn’t have to be resolved tomorrow. But I mean the idea in Germany that that Trump could Impose punitive tariffs on cars as I say, he’s actually got the more he wants them in some ways. Well, Japan got the joke I mean if you look at Japan went through this year Do you know the percentage of Japan Japanese cars that are made the United States? It’s close to 70% of the car itself in the high 60s most it’s like 18 to 22 percent So so Japan got the memo 90s. Yeah, and now Germany and Bose wagon and BMW have to are getting the memo but the cheapness of these European auto companies BMW is trading at the largest spread discount to General Motors that we’ve ever seen the decade So it feels like to us the bear traps report that a lot of this but is priced in and if Trump delivers Something I’ll just as if softens up a touch you could have a substantial Mean reversion in what he will do cause it’s something I mean that isn’t that isn’t isn’t isn’t that the way that Trump plays? Ask for that but settle for that and yeah And there may be a deal coming but at the moment I don’t think you’re gonna see a settlement of this quickly And I think again we need to make this point very strongly that Everything changes in the European Union this year the Parliament changes the Commission changes the ECB changes Over the course of this summer. There are going to be no deals done with the European Union There’s gonna be no one there and 5g. I mean, you know So Europe, it’s got this 5g weapon. I mean, this is a major weapon because as 5g that you know, The major telecom infrastructure of the world China wants to have their companies have more control over 5g Your your Trump needs the Europeans on board with the US Platform and the US and and the Europeans have now held back in recent days saying that there won’t stop Hawaii engines China I know I know I know while in many of these areas you almost think that some of this European decision making is just despite Trump I mean Iran being a classic Yeah A classic case of where you almost think every pronouncement Trump makes on Iran the EU say something different as I say Don’t expect much transactional business to take place this year between the European Union and an America or anybody else. This is a Month after month after month of elections. That’s what Europe is going through this year and we’ll know by November Well, nobody will know by November what the shape of those institutions is going to be I suspect as I say that at the center They will carrot that they will carry on with their centralizing but you may see a European Parliament that has such a big minority of Euroskeptics that effectively they can block a lot of new legislation Going through so we could finish up at the end of this year with an e you even more stalemated than it is now Let’s get into your vision from middle-class Britain and Britain itself for the next like how does How do how does your views and your concept actually help the man on the street? And what’s your vision for the next five years? Breaks, it will happen. I Don’t think it’s gonna happen this year But breaks, it will happen. Why? Because the genie is out of the bottle people have made their minds up And what the negotiating process has shown us is the sheer arrogance of these bureaucrats in Brussels I mean people Britain now hate them. They are real hate figures so we so we will be free of this thing at some point of next two or three years what that means is We genuinely become a self-governing nation. We start to make our own laws again, which we haven’t done for decades now We could use That opportunity to make things cuz it’ll be worse for ourselves or make them considerably better for ourselves but the argument that I’m gonna go on making with brexit is Here is our opportunity to look at a section of our economy that no one talks about anymore the 5.4 million people in Britain Who run their own businesses or act as sole traders who provide over 60 percent of employment? in the private sector and it while crucial to economic growth and everything else within our economy and Governments in days of capitalism used to help these guys By lifting the burden of regulation off their backs or whatever else it may be We’re not living in capitalism. We’re living in an age of global corporatism We’re living in an age where very big companies are very big governments acting concert and no one frankly gives a damn about everybody else My vision for brexit Britain is one will be genuinely economically, let me liberate these people and let them get out there and try and make their own money and and yet I know people Will say well The shades of regulars and the shades of Thatcherism in what you’re saying But the answer is it worked and it worked then and I think it would work now and on the world stage I think brexit Britain becomes a very different country on the world stage We’ve been we’ve been seriously hemmed in but you know unable to make our own trade deals unable, really to fulfill our role in the world, and and I think logically, and obviously It is the english-speaking peoples of the world which basically means America and the Commonwealth And I think and believe are going to get a whole lot closer. And when do we get there last that? that election What general election? Yeah in the UK at the moment. It’s not in the interest of either party to have a general election So all the guff you read in the newspapers about an imminent election, none of it’s happening. All right, it just is not Going to happen but if the Tory party if the Tory party don’t deliver brexit What you will then see is a fracture on the center-right of politics that will perhaps be even bigger than the fracture We’ve seen to the center from Corbin’s Labour Party So British politics is actually a little bit more fluid than it’s been for some time But I do think so an election within two years but not within a year. I would think very unlikely within a year okay, very unlikely within a year, but if we haven’t left the EU there might be a European election and If that’s the case, I should be back in the front lines doing my stuff. It’s a pleasure to have you Thank you very much. Okay

Why “Us Against Them” Politics Is More Dangerous Than ISIS | Sebastian Junger


I think everything we do is a form of tribalism.
We’re evolved for that. We’re wired for that. The question is how big do we want our
tribe to be? England seems to be saying we want our tribe and at our choice. All right
so that’s a point of view I understand. So it’s a legitimate point of view. Equally
legitimate is the opposite point of view where there should be a broader pan European tribe
as it were to protect itself and reinforce itself in a dangerous world. That’s also
tribalism. It’s just a matter of how big you draw the tribe. At its essence, at its
core every individual has to decide whether they’re an individual or are they part of
a larger group. Are they part of their neighborhood and are they part of their community. Or do
they just exist to serve themselves. What England is facing is something that every
single human being in the world faces at some level in their lives about their own personal
interests versus the interests of their group. Personally I think that democracy is a messy
experiment and there’s a lot of discourse, a lot of conflict, a lot of argument, a lot
of debate and a lot of dislike. I mean we’re not required to like each other. I think about
the platoon that I was with in combat, the most stressful environment conceivable. There
was a log of dislike within the platoon. There were guys who didn’t like each other at
all. But the one thing they never did was speak with contempt about one another. They
argued, they fought, they disagreed but they respected each other. And you don’t disrespect
someone inside the wire as it were. What’s disturbing right now in this country is that
there are very, very powerful people – politicians and media leaders who are disrespecting other
people inside the wire. They are speaking with real contempt and derision about their
president, about aspects of the government, about segments of the population. You just
don’t do that. You never know when you’ll need those people for survival, when your
life will depend on those people or you’ll be asked to save their lives. You just don’t
know. And the idea that this country can’t overnight
be turned into a combat, you know either this country can’t overnight be turned into one
huge combat outpost is absurd. We just don’t know what’s going to happen. And so when
you have politicians speaking like that it’s not just the messy debate of democracy. It
really undermines the basis of our country, the moral basis of our democracy. It’s much
more dangerous to our democracy than Isis is or Al-Qaeda is. It also is a good campaign
strategy and that’s the tragedy, right. I mean you have politicians who appeal to
a kind of tribalism by saying look, it’s us against them and the them are actually
other citizens in this country. When you do that you create very, very strong support
in your base but it’s the long term consequence that you’re talking about the country as
if it’s being split in two. It’s a little like marriage counselors advise, you know,
just don’t say the word divorce within your conversations as a couple. That the idea of
splitting up is not acceptable and what I would say personally as a citizen to politicians
is stop talking about this country as if it’s conceivable that it’s actually two countries.
Just don’t do it because you’re starting a very, very dangerous dialogue and you don’t
know where it’s going to end. Well this country is an example of a modern
country that has overcome its internal divisions and has existed for over 240 years as a nation.
And I mean we’ve had a lot of rocky times and unfair laws and everything else but we’re
a nation of 330 million people and we’re still together. The democracies of Europe
likewise. I mean it’s not pretty but neither is family life. I mean no one guaranteed you
pretty. Do you know what I mean. But it is working and it’s a continual work in progress.
What we all have to do I believe is keep reminding each other of our best qualities. An interesting
thing about humans is that the worse the situation, the better we act. When you have the flood,
the hurricane, the civil war, the blitz in London, whatever it may be, that’s when
people will really step up and achieve a kind of loyalty to the common good. A kind of selflessness,
kind of blindness to race and politics and religion and everything else that can divide
us. And as things get better, as circumstances get better and easier people start to act
worse. And I think it’s very, very helpful to remind your fellow citizens and remind
yourself that in our very darkest days we all act quite well and that’s what we should
aspire to throughout the course of our lives and throughout the course of our democracy.

🔴Fear And Politics Moving European Markets (w/Dr. Irene Finel-Honigman)


I think one lesson is what happened right after breakfast was announced right after June 23rd 2016 where the immediate response was the Dow fell 600 points the pound suddenly looked like it was about to crash Everything looked like oh my god, we’ve hit, you know disaster again and after 48 hours have calmed down Do you see any evolution in the near term of this crisis whether it’s a second referendum or a hard brexit or whatever that results in something like that any kind of real social violence even on the level of the Yellowjackets and well, you know I think this is something we have to be extremely careful about because What we did see with levy is wrong with the yellowed records in Paris was that one false move by President McComb of Announcing that he was raising gasoline taxes while at the same time pushing for massive investments and basically tax breaks for foreign Money and certainly for the owner of the corporate class in France Ignited this very sadly once it was ignited and then it’s very often happened deteriorated into a complete basically movement of vandalism of violence which lost its its original purpose and cause Something like this can happen So the UK has to be very careful that politicians in the process of fighting their own little fights about brexit Do not in term ignite a genuine sense of outrage and anger and it’s there to be ignited I mean You know these things It is there and it’s there in every country and I think in Germany and again because of German history in part But uncle American is also had to be very very careful of exactly how she’s Recalibrated and balanced the role of Germany particularly is presuming Lee the largest donor to all European bailouts etcetera with the needs of her country her constituency and Leaders are going to have to really watch out for that There’s no question and that’s why I mentioned that when we talk about the Russian influence It’s very important to understand how deep this sense of disenfranchisement and Marginalization and discontent with basically regional and global entities is within countries themselves. Absolutely Ya know it’s there. And yes, I think this is also one reason why The UK will have to be very careful whoever comes in to replace to resume and I think this is not going to be an easy job and Hopefully some solution is is found and I’m not sure Boris Johnson’s the answer Yeah, you know it’s very interesting that it’s almost like the butterfly effect These little sparks can just ignite a conflagration and exactly, you know, the the whole Arab Spring was literally started by one Vendor who set himself on fire because he couldn’t get his cart back after it had been Taken away from it and and the fire literally spread throughout the whole Of the region and and and so you do have this thing macron does one little thing that if he’d done it the week before Or if he’d done something different it might not have right Produced that at all, but you you can’t really judge where those things are. It’s it’s it’s not a predictable system. It’s like a what they call a catastrophic system in Mathematics it it suddenly changes from one state to another without money without any real think so, you know I I do have that concern in the UK and and you just wonder if they if there was a for example a second Referendum and of course the question there is what would the question be on the second? Ah, that’s a problem and I’ve heard all sorts of versions of that but if there were and one side or the other is obviously going to lose and and would that be a spark that would ignite this and how would you Control it. I remember There was a who was it that said that you know This was years ago And is the famous book and he said he described the British as having barely controlled anger, and I think that’s true I think that is that is the curtain, you know What one doesn’t want to reach is the point in which that’s let loose well, I think this is the problem in Europe Also, you could almost go country by country in Europe this basically a simmering level of anger Against some of the political class against a political decision the sense that you still are basically being run by elites Making decisions that do not necessarily take you into account is running right now very deep. It’s a sense of betrayal I think it is a betrayal and you know And we have to remember of course in European history is a long tradition of this the revolution of 1848 started this way, right? they’ve been other major revolutions and for friendly yes changes in Europe that start often exactly with that and so The point I always find fascinating with with a lot of European countries and in a way Maybe that’s just go back to there almost deep and sometimes instinctive sense of their own history They often do have these sudden movements of rage and anger and yet somehow at the end They always seem particularly since the creation of the European Union to almost walk to the precipice and then walk back to somehow understand perhaps on a deeper level than we do in the states where we have not gone through what Europe has gone through That you don’t want to get too close to the abyss. You kind of look over it exactly, and then you know Okay, and we have seen this already in Italy we have in many ways seen this in Greece We have seen this a number of country Certainly my call interestingly enough has tried to a little bit contain this by doing something typically French which years ago Me too haunted is appeal to the sense of the country appeal to the sense of patriotism that we’re all in this together Yeah, well That’s that Center that seems to be missing or or under so much stress and so Finn in so much of the world nowadays is everything is centrifugal forces forced everything to the sides and and one little Crisis and it’s even force more to the side and it’s really problematic going back to markets for a moment so if you know in the in the various evolutions of that that are from this point seem probable or likely, you know a Hard brexit, we hope won’t happen a some kind of negotiated brexit Fading away of it. You know, it’s just on hold indefinitely another referendum You see a temporary roiling in the markets in both Europe and the UK and probably globally but youth do you? Feel like people have already almost priced that in in a way and and so you don’t see that this is gonna be the thing that precipitates a Serious global downturn there may be one for other reasons But I’m saying do you do you think that there’s a risk or how high risk is there that this is? something that would precipitate a real serious issue long span long term Downturn of some kind or do you think it’s it that it’s it’s already sort of in there in people’s minds So whatever happens it it will there’ll be this period where everybody has to Raise their hands up and scream about it, and then things will go back to normal Well, I think one lesson is what happened right after breakfast was announced right after June 23rd 2016 Where the immediate response was the Dow fell 600 points the pound suddenly looked like it was about to crash Everything looked like oh my god, we’ve hit, you know disaster again and after 48 hours have calmed down It began to calm down and everyone sort of stood back and said wait a minute the fundamentals in our economies are solid Nothing else has dramatically changed We are looking at one set of now major political changes and possible huge problems But fundamentally in an economic an economic standpoint. There hasn’t been that much involved in this so far That’s why I found it fascinating to what a point these little safety nets are being laid out in the regulatory Side and are basically being set out so that nothing is going to have to take place in absolute immediacy Neither the banks moving or getting the whole concept of bank of the backpass porting Privileges across Europe a banks being allowed to function each other’s countries. This will continue basically quite a while There’s a time to breathe. There’s a lot of breathing space that is already built in this is already built in The fact that the pound is not done very well since brexit But it has not done dramatically badly either look for one point four to one point two hours, right? and and you know the the Example I use is during the absolute worst of the sovereign debt crises when everyone was thinking about oh, this is over Well, it turned out that the dollar euro parody never went ballistic. Yeah it remained Yes a little bit up a little bit down remain fairly solid Basically central bank reserves of 65 percent dollar and roughly 20 to 27 percent euro different shift You know, there’s so many more larger global factors that we have already seen Do not necessarily get impacted by political decision and political crises I think that this may be part of it the problem is that Psychologically the perception of a sudden no deal Or everything just for maybe actually more severe that may be more damaging You know the sense of oh wait, man what now? Not necessarily market responses You

Brexit: Facts vs Fear, with Stephen Fry.


Can you see what’s
wrong with this scene? The trick is called
forced perspective. It was used to shrink the Hobbits
in The Lord of the Rings. Deceptive framing has also created
false assumptions about the EU. Some very dark,
and some comical. This is the story of how a mythical
EU dragon was conjured up, and the striking
truth behind it all. Headlines like these
have been a reliable way for British newspapers
to win attention. In 2015, the UN Human Rights
chief urged the UK to tackle tabloid hate speech after
migrants were called cockroaches. The article in the Sun began:
“Show me pictures of coffins, “show me bodies floating in water,
play violins and show me “skinny people looking sad.
I still don’t care.” You referred to a plague
of feral humans. I mean, are
they all feral? Is it actually
a plague? It’s because you look at them
and think you are nothing like me. You don’t understand
how our culture works. In these individuals, from
some of these cultures they come from,
are feral humans. The UN described a
nasty underbelly of racism and noted that Nazi media also
referred to people as cockroaches, rats. Brexiteers sailed in on
fears built up over decades. This campaign poster
captures the deception. The migrants aren’t heading to
Britain and have no way to reach it. The lone white face has been
covered by the campaign slogan. When challenged Nigel Farage
felt no pressure to apologise. Your poster has been taken by
many people as deeply offensive, upsetting, racist,
anti-Muslim. Would you like to
apologise to them tonight? Well you know, I issued a very
similar poster to that two months before, with very little debate. The problem
with the poster wasn’t the image. After all it appeared on all
of our front page newspapers. A leaflet played on the same
fears, with more subtle deception. It claims these countries
are set to join the EU. In reality they
have applied, but Turkey applied
over 30 years ago, and couldn’t be
further from joining. Syria and Iraq
have not applied. They are shown
for the fear factor. A second leaflet
is less subtle. Turkey and Iraq are
almost the same colour. The arrow, part of the
visual language of invasion, includes all the
colours of the region. Let’s move the camera
for a clearer view. This is what the NHS
spends by age group. Add education and pensions and we
have half of all government spending. These are the demographics
of immigrants. They are exactly what Britain needs
to support its aging population. There is overwhelming
consensus among economists that immigration is
good for Britain’s economy. Studies show they
boost public finances because they pay
more in indirect taxes and make much less use of
benefits and public services. What do they know? What do they know
about the impact of immigration on school places,
on hospital waiting lists? In fact, immigrants pay for
more places than they use. European migrants made a
positive net contribution of £20 billion to UK public finances
between 2000 and 2011. That’s enough to pay for an extra
80 million GP visits per year. Immigrants also
reduce waiting lists by easing the
NHS’s recruitment crisis. This year the NHS has
3,000 fewer EEA nurses and 4,000 doctors are
considering leaving the UK. Here’s the
second graph. It shows that most Leave voters
live in areas with very few immigrants. 9 of the 10 districts with the highest
Leave vote had low immigration. Lambeth in London, which recorded
the highest Remain vote of 78%, saw a net annual influx
of 4,598 immigrants, while Castle Point in Essex
saw only 81 new immigrants. But 72% of people
there, voted Leave. At first this might
seem surprising, but it’s a well-established trend
that when we meet immigrants, we lose our
fear of them. The illusion
is broken. The UK media is the least trusted
in Europe by some margin. Perhaps even more
readers need to recognise the deception before
things improve. The leave campaign also drove
fear of losing democratic control. We cannot hope to govern
an independent nation. We cannot hope to have an
independent democracy in this country, as long as we are
members of the EU. Since 1999 the UK has voted
in favour of EU laws 95% of the time, and against,
only 2%. In search of an example
of losing control to the EU, Boris suggested that the EU
banned odd shaped bananas, a myth debunked
over 20 years ago. You cannot sell bananas with
abnormal curvature of the fingers. Other comical myths
hardly need debunking. In his resignation letter, Boris
pointed to a more serious example. He said, “If a country cannot pass a
law to save the lives of female cyclists “when that proposal is supported
at every level of UK government, “then I don’t see how that country
can truly be called independent.” The laws he refers to were in fact
put forward by the EU and passed, despite some resistance
among the UK government. Other EU achievements include taking
sewage off bathing beaches, cheaper phone calls, fighting tax
evasion by global companies, banning spam emails and
major breakthroughs in science and medicine
through collaborative projects. But for Boris, the EU was like
an alien force taking over Britain. Let’s fight against the great complacent,
mutinous armies of the establishment. We can win. We can
win on June 23rd. Campaign between
now and June 23rd. Take back control
of our country. Vote Leave and let’s make sure
that June 24th is independence day. The framing of Boris and
his colleague, Jacob Rees-Mogg, as fighting the establishment,
was also very forced. Jacob’s father was
the editor of The Times. In his own words he was effectively
born into the establishment. He is for foxhunting, against abortion
under any circumstances, and personally delivered a Daily Express
petition against foreign aid. But the message resonated
with people who had suffered years of income stagnation
while the rich had grown richer. The leave campaign
blamed this on immigration, but studies show immigration
does not deflate wages, and the real causes
are well established. The 2008 financial crisis
and government policies criticised by the UN as failing
to promote social mobility. People without degrees,
perhaps feeling trapped at the wrong end
of income inequality, were far more likely
to vote Leave. Central London is
the EU’s richest region and yet 30 percent of UK
children live in poverty. A hundred thousand more have fallen
below the poverty line in 12 months. Boris and Co seem unlikely
candidates to deviate from this path. Projecting a fight against
the establishment allowed the Leave campaign
to brush research data and expert advice
under the carpet. What economics body is
there that they should believe? All the ones, all the ones that are part of
the sort of institutional infrastructure of big government,
be suspicious of. I think the people in this country
have had enough of experts with organisations from
acronyms saying… People of this country
have had enough of experts? What do you
mean by that? In a poll of top
economists 80% agreed that people in the UK would be
poorer as a result of Brexit. Only 2% disagreed. Here’s why there’s
such a consensus. Putting up trade barriers
is bad for your economy. The withdrawal from the EU is a
form of putting up trade barriers. Full stop. You are ruining
your competitiveness specifically with your
largest trading partner. It is a fact of life. It’s one of
the few things in economics we can talk about as a fact
of life. The gravity applies. The UK trades more with
Ireland than with China. Yet Jacob Rees-Mogg
says a No Deal Brexit would boost the
economy by £1.1 trillion. Trump has of course
employed a similar trick branding the whole
mainstream media as fake and projecting his
own alternative facts. Perhaps the Leave
campaign’s greatest trick, after dishonestly sowing and stoking
so much groundless fear themselves, was to steal from that
cheap Trump playbook and accuse Remainers of
being guilty of their crimes. Just as Trump, the master creator
of false facts, shouts fake news and whatever goes against
his agenda, so the Brexiteers, the arch instigators of
electoral fear themselves, routinely labelled all the warnings
from experts: “Project Fear”. Expert warnings which
have come starkly true throughout this shambles
of a negotiation period. Project fear. The truth is beginning to outshine
the mythical dragon of the EU. Polls show that most people
would now rather remain in Europe, and there is increasing support
for a vote on the final deal. Something Jacob Rees-Mogg
once supported. And you could have two
referendums and as it happens, it may be more sense to have
the second referendum after the renegotiation
is completed. Should the will of the people
change when they have clearly put the
deal before them, would he respect
that will of the people? If in 30 years time the
UK wants to rejoin that would be a matter
for the electorate then, but this result must be respected
and it must be implemented. Perhaps in a final vote, facts
would start to overcome fears. Wouldn’t that be a win
for informed democracy?

Politics = Soccer – Larry and Paul


– Alright, son, here you go.
– Ah, nice one mate. – Ready for the big match?
– Yeah, it doesn’t get much bigger than this one. No sir, it does not. – May the best team win.
(Gove) …which is why I commend this motion.
– Go on, Mikey.
– Order!Here we Gove, here we Gove, here we Gove! …Here we Gove, here we Gove, here we Gove!Sit down, shut up! (Corbyn) I look forward to testing opinion… – Yes! …In a General Election…
…at the ballot box…
– Yes! …When we will be able to elect a
Labour government in this country. YES!Oh, Jeremy Corbyn! Oh, Jeremy Corbyn! (Hunt) …in the world, where we do
what the people tell us.Nice one, Jezza Nice one, Hunt. Nice one, Jezza. – You’re such a slimy c–
– Oi! Don’t abuse my players. (Johnson) …as idiots and get snarled in delectable disputations about standing… – What’s he doing? – Yes!
– Don’t do that! – Yes!
– No! …public school…debating school…err…debating society…He’s big, he’s round,
he’s cut the value of the pound Boris Johnson! What a tool!Why is he even in the side? (Cooper) …she will rule out …in any circumstances – a customs union.We love you Cooper, we do. Oh Cooper we love you. Yes! Cooper! – She’s not even Shadow Cabinet, mate. – Just you watch, mate: next captain. She is captain material, is Cooper. (May) …speaking to my constituents and to voters right across the country. …that is what they demand. Far from helping…I will just, in a moment… – …far from helping parliament finish…
– Boring game this. – Yeah. – Can we get our ticket money back?
– I hope so.
(Rees-Mogg) …he seems… – Yes, Moggy! …he seems to think that the ERG and the DUP control the Prime Minister…He buys what he wants! He buys what he wants! Jacob Rees-Mogg! He buys what he wants! – Mainly offshore though, innit? – Come on!
– Go on! – You’ve got this! – The ayes to the right: 306. – You’ve got the numbers, you’ve got the numbers! – The noes to the left: 325.You’re not singing any more! You’re not singing any more! Boom! ‘ave it! What a win. What a win. – What a win! We’re still gonna win the league.