If Bloomberg is Nominee, Do Dems Stay Home?

Let’s go next to our caller from the two six,
seven area code. Who’s calling today from two six seven uh, David? Yes. Hello. Hi, my name is Greg. I’m calling from
bucks County in Pennsylvania. I’m a big fan of your show. Uh, 11, my friend, a lot of
my friends on the left on are Bernie supporters as I am. And uh, but I’m getting very concerned,
uh, about the idea of a Bloomberg candidacy and I’m concerned that it will depress, um,
it will depress votes and that we will end up with Trump. Again. I understand the arguments
that he’s kind of, he’s a version of Trump, but I also lived in New York for most of my
life and I lived through Bloomberg, the Bloomberg, uh, ownership. And I’m interested in what
you have to say, um, to Bernie supporters and people on the left who are getting, um,
disappointed about the idea of a Bloomberg possibility of Bloomberg candidacy and the
idea that they might not vote. They might sit this out and I’d love to hear what you
say. Let’s say about all that. I think it’s D I actually, I posted to my Twitter
page a few days ago, something like a, I’m getting emails from some Democrats saying,
if Bloomberg’s the nominee, they won’t vote. Where are you guys on this? And I got like
6,000 replies from a lot of Democrats saying I won’t vote if it’s Bloomberg. And I totally
understand that. I mean in Bloomberg, um, you have a guy who represents a lot of different
things. You have a guy who represents a possible sort of bailout for the of possible bailout
for the establishment that may be seeing Joe Biden tank and are unclear about Buddha judge
and Amy Klobuchar doesn’t really have support if Bloomberg’s really polling 15 nationally,
maybe he’s the guy to get behind. But then you have a voter turnout question which you’re
bringing up. And the question is, if Bloomberg is the democratic nominee, given that Bloomberg
was a Republican for so long, given that Bloomberg’s politics on a lot of social issues based on
videos that have come out recently seem to not be particularly enlightened and progressive
to put it lightly, what is it going to do to turn out and how will he fare against Donald
Trump? My answer is I don’t know. And the reason
I say that is I get emails about polling that says, Hey, you know what? In face to face
match-ups, Bloomberg does really well against Trump. And then I get other polling that says,
Hey, you know, what if Bloomberg’s the nominee that we’ll keep the largest number of democratic
voters home. So I understand the idea that Bloomberg as the nominee might depress turnout.
There are so many conflicting data points that I just don’t have an answer about that
right now. And all I can really say is if you support the policies of Bernie instead
of Bloomberg, just go out and support Bernie now and then if there’s a different nominee,
evaluate it and make a decision as to what’s best at that point. Yeah, absolutely. I think it’s incredibly
difficult. There’s not even enough information yet tonight it’s going to be a whole different
spin on this. Um, because of the debates and of course the mentioning media, MSNBC in particular
has been, uh, ridiculous. This is, this is in their anti, uh, in their anti Bernie, uh,
screeds. So, uh, yeah, it’s going to be real. And one last question. Uh, if you had to vote
right now and you had to choose between Trump and Bloomberg, how would you vote? Yeah, I, I would vote for Bloomberg over Trump.
And I know there’s a lot of people saying there’s no difference. It’s just a richer
version of Trump with a lot of the same ideas that the reasons why I would vote for Bloomberg
over Trump are number one, the Supreme court choices Bloomberg would make would not be
as bad as the ones Trump would make. Number two, Bloomberg actually has both sort of diplomatic
and, uh, political experience that Trump lacks, which is the source of a lot of Donald Trump’s
missteps. That would be number two. And then number three, although it would be no great
party if Bloomberg were president, Bloomberg would restore some of the respect from world
leaders that we have lost under Trump, although certainly, certainly not all. So for me, I
wouldn’t be cheering about voting for Bloomberg over Trump, but I would definitely vote Bloomberg
over Trump. Yeah. Thank David. I really appreciate your opinion and I’m a great fan of the show. Thanks so much.

Will 15% Primary Threshold Screw Progressives?

Hey David, how will the 15% primary threshold
effect who wins the democratic primary? So there’s another way. I think that what people are trying to get
to is, is the 15% threshold going to screw this candidate or that candidate? So there’s a couple of things to understand. In the democratic primaries, there is a 15%
threshold where if you don’t get 15% of the vote, you don’t get any of the delegates. This is particularly important in the bigger
States because in the smaller States, there are often so few delegates to go around that
besides the, the sort of momentum impact of it, it’s not really mathematically that important
to be getting delegates from the small States as long as you can continue justifying staying
in the race if, but if no candidate meets the 15% threshold, what the democratic party
rules is that the minimum to receive delegates becomes half of the front runners vote share. So imagine that you have a state where a candidate
wins with 14% of the votes. That’s the plurality 14% and then you know,
someone else has 13 and 12 whatever it adds up to a hundred if the winner has 14% everybody
would 7% or more delegates gets delegates. So that’s in the rules. But let’s put that aside for a second, cause
that’s not the most likely scenario. In later States, in really big States, you
could see this become a factor, uh, in the broader delegate math. So imagine that California goes the way one
recent national poll says, imagine that Biden gets 23% of the vote in California. Warren gets 18 and Bernie gets 14 hypothetically,
right? Because Bernie didn’t get 15% of the vote. Bernie gets zero, which means that Biden gets
his 23% uh, Warren gets her 18% it actually can go up once you eliminate people sub 15
but ignore that for now. But the really important thing about this
is that Bernie and Warren in this scenario have 32% a strong progressive contingent that
has more support than Biden, but that 15% threshold could make it so that the progressive
candidates get kneecap and end up getting zero in some States because one of them didn’t
get to the 15% this is why I get emails from people saying, David, at some point shouldn’t
burn your Warren drop out because if they make it so that neither or only one of them
gets 15% and the other ends up getting no delegates as a result of that, isn’t it going
to help the establishment? Basically Joe Biden when the answer is yes,
but this is why it’s good for the early primaries to help one candidate build momentum over
the other. My most, uh, the most likely scenario for
how this is going to go is that after New Hampshire, uh, after, sorry, Iowa, New Hampshire,
Nevada and South Carolina, after they all vote, I think there is going to be a clear,
a clear momentum advantage for either Bernie or Warren as the progressive candidates. And I think that in the end, the one with
the momentum is going to take a significant lead over the one that doesn’t have it. And this issue of splitting the progressive
vote will be less and less of an issue as the campaign goes forward. I could be wrong and if that doesn’t happen,
then it is possible that the progressive wing of the democratic party will be hurt by this. But my expectation is that the first four
primaries will establish which of the two progressives is going to go the distance and
that then you will very quickly start to see support coalescing around one or the other. If you think it won’t go that way, then I
want to hear from you. Either leave a comment, if you’re watching
on YouTube or send me a tweet at D Pacman, we’ve got
a fantastic bonus show for you today with producer Pat. Become a [email protected]howtogetinstantaccesstothatbonusshowthedavidpakmanshowatdavidpakman.com

Is DNC Trying to Split Vote to Let Superdelegates Pick Biden?

you can tell we are getting very close to
an election because a lot of the audience questions coming in relate to the either the
democratic primary or the eventual general election in November of 2020. So let’s dig right into it. First question. Hey, David is the [inaudible] [inaudible]
strategy to split the democratic primary vote as much as possible to force a brokered convention
and let super delegates decide on the second ballot. So let’s, we first have to explain this entire
thing. So you might remember back in 2016 as the
primaries were going on, you would see these estimates of how many delegates each candidate
had. And very often you would see, for example,
Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders with like the same number or close to the same number
of delegates on the basis of polling and thus expected voting in the primary States. But then you would see another, which says
plus super delegates and Hillary had like all the superdelegates and then it would seem
as though Bernie simply had no chance whatsoever of securing the nomination. Even if you ran the table in the primaries
from that point forward. And this is one of the ways in which people
accurately said the DNC was set up to deny Bernie the nomination in 2016 and to help
Hillary Clinton, which is that even before any ballots were cast in primaries by voters,
super delegates were already known and expected to be supporting mostly Hillary Clinton over
Bernie Sanders. So one of the things that the DNC did since
the last primary in order to at least appear as though they’re trying to make the primary
more democratic, as they said, super delegates will not vote on the first ballot at the convention. So before the way it worked is you would have
all the primaries leading up to the democratic national convention. The primaries would lead to delegates being
sent to the DNC. The superdelegates would be there and they
would say, let’s now vote, and the delegates would vote based on how their state primary
went, and then the superdelegates would vote. You add them all up and then somebody, the
nominee maybe or not you go to a second round with the DNC, decided to do, as they said
in 2020 superdelegates will not vote on the first round. Therefore, if a candidate has enough support
in the first round of voting, based solely on the delegates from the primaries, the superdelegates
won’t even get involved. But if after the first round of voting there
is not a nominee on the basis of the rules, then we do a second round and the super delegates
are then allowed to participate. So if one strategy was we need to appear as
though we are putting our thumb on the scales less than in 2016 but we still want the opportunity
to do that. You would say, all right, let’s get rid of
superdelegate voting in round one, push superdelegate voting to round two but let’s try to make
it so that we get to that second round, make it so that there is not a candidate selected
in round one of voting at the DNC. And one way to do that is indeed to split
the vote, but it’s actually a two tiered strategy. The strategy you’re talking about of splitting
the vote in order to get super delegates in a position to decide on the second ballot. There’s a prior strategy to that, which is
let’s just reinforce the establishment so that Joe Biden or increasingly Pete Buddha
judge a win. And I actually was on TV last week talking
about this on the rising on rising the Hill, the Hills rising, the show with crystal ball
and cigar and jetty. And I explained that even if it’s not a carefully
crafted strategy, if the DNC is worried about Biden because they see that he looks slow
during the debate, during the debates, they see that he’s not making a lot of sense on
some issues that every debate he drops in polling the debate being more publicly visible
is worse for Biden. If they’re worried about that, they can say
who’s a good alternative. It’s not Bernie. Uh, it’s not Warren, it’s Buddha, judge Buddha
judges the other establishment candidate that we could get behind by supporting Pete Buddha
judge by giving him more airtime, uh, speaking time during the MSNBC debate for example,
they are pulling more people into the universe of centrism. And if in the end those voters say, you know
what, I don’t actually want to vote for Buddha judge cause he’s not experienced enough. It’s a very natural transition to instead
go and vote for Joe Biden. And so the initial strategy is to basically
default this thing to Joe Biden, but with the understanding that Biden’s having some
problems start supporting Buddha judge just to get more people thinking centrist rather
than leftist like Warren or Bernie and hopefully they will just straight out win the nomination
in the first ballot on the basis of primary results. Of course, if it doesn’t happen, the strategy
of splitting the vote is an effective one to try to eventually let superdelegates decide
on round two in the democratic national convention. So they’re doing it all. It’s a different strategy than in 2016 because
the rules have changed, but certainly don’t be confused for a second. The establishment knows who they want and
knows who they don’t want and there are multiple strategies happening at the same time to try
to make that a reality.

Election 2016: Ohio Politics

It’s an excellent question, and the thing that is truly new this time is the intensity of white middle class populism, especially the younger adults
in that group and there’s a Bernie Sanders liberal version of it and a
donald Trump conservative version of it but the as i said earlier income
inequality has grown so much that ordinary working people, especially the
whites in that group are extremely unhappy with the current situation and
they put pressure on both parties and interestingly the establishment
candidate in the democratic party seems to have prevailed to have resisted those
pressures absorb some of that message without transforming her message whereas the republicans have not been
able to the leadership to hang on and the populist candid from the outside and
their party seems on track to become the nominee and that’s very interesting and
even if you loses the sort of angry unhappy lower-middle-class has
re-emerged as a major shaping force in american politics including within both
of the two major parties and so I think that’ll be with us for a long time. The nineteen sixties and seventies were
very polarizing years for the country as a whole. Before that, the culture of the
country including its political culture was much more moderate especially during
the nineteen fifties in the era of Dwight Eisenhower and so in that earlier
period, Ohio fit perfectly, Didn’t mean to reproduce necessarily a
president but more moderate presidents of both moderate conservative or
moderate liberal were appealing to Ohio once. Politics in ohio is sometimes like
like into a shoving match at the 50 yard line and other words the two parties are
fairly close together on many issues and it’s a culture that rewards people who
are centrist other parts of the country the Sun Belt California New York are
places where be either strongly liberal or strongly conservative helps you more
and so at the moment for an Ohio politician such as Governor Kasich to
be elected president it’s a bit of a struggle because he comes out of this
moderate midwestern political culture and yet when he travels to other parts
of the country not everyone thinks in the same way. The problem with a brokered convention in
the modern television era is that it’s supposed to present to the country and
appealing vision of the party and image of the party is ready to be in charge
and if there’s a brokered convention it could be very disorderly and conflict
ridden and it would make for interesting television one way but the overall
message would be probably not ready for prime time players, and the advent of
television really matters here other words until there was television,
conventions could do a lot people there could argue alot and most people in the
audience radio audience would not necessarily know that. Now that we have
this visual medium it puts the convention right in people’s homes it
would be very hard to manage a brokered a contested convention in a way that was
reassuring to voters that Republicans are already. If the world becomes more violent and disorderly between now and
November that will tend to drive swing voters towards hillary Clinton has
emerged as the likely nominee and the reason I say that is because she is an
enormously experienced person especially in foreign policy by having the
secretary of state but she’s also part of a team two-person team, Hillary and
Bill, and so in a way what they offer is a third term right and a third term a
very experienced people and we only have one third term in American history third
presidential term and that was the 11 by Franklin Roosevelt in 1940 and that year
was very similar in some ways to this year the republicans had an outsider
came in they went to Wilkie who shook up a party with a populist message and to
the surprise of many people became the nominee the problems they’re here
another new york–business person was that he had no foreign policy experience,
and as German armies advanced in 1940 and then as the German Air Force began
bombing England it became clear that war in Europe was going to get bigger and
messy her and that drove independent voters swing voters toward Franklin
Roosevelt because the idea of having a true novice as commander-in-chief has a
January 24 1941 just didn’t make sense to swing voters baby boomers are a very large group
about a quarter of the population in excess of 75 million people and varied
but in general they tend to have grown up in america that had more economic
opportunities for that and I even have pensions that younger people begin
paying as boomers were tired of contributing to the Social Security
trust fund that sort of thing so the view from millennium is that in some
ways baby boomers have had an easier and Millennials to be fair they are working
but they’re often underemployed or underpaid not paid enough given what
things cost nowadays to get started on marrying buying a house having a family
even what they drink in other words very inexpensive beer is back in again and
it’s not just because our populace in terms of their style it’s because I am
viewers too expensive the same might be said of razor blades
razor blades are way better than they used to be in terms of the quality the
blaze there also way more expensive so I know plenty of millennial college
students who where beer is not just because they think it looks cool but it
saves money they don’t have to buy razor place and the bike so to see if there
was a lot of them right bikes instead of drive cars and they quietly explained to
me that the cost of the new car insurance and so forth and way more than
it used to be so there is this twenty something in terms of thirtysomething
cohort that they’re employed yes but often they borrowed a lot to go to
college they don’t make enough yet to do what they would like to do in terms of
joining the middle class and having kids and so on and they’re frustrated by that
and so there are that there’s a certain that a tension between Millennials and
Boomer and boomers throw up their hands in the sense that from their point of
view Millennials are starting everything too late they settle down too late they
buy a home too late so in terms of trying to get their families going and
build economic security they moved too slowly arrested development that I that they’re sort of perpetual war young
people as opposed to adults and once you understand the economic conditions
facing Millennials that lifestyle makes more sense